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China customs bans shipping of lithium batteries?

LeoThomson said:
Glad you are thinking about this, but lets take it a little further. What do you think will happen when AI is smarter than the smartest person?
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That is theoretically possible, and a fun and perhaps worthy intellectual exercise.

However, there is a uniqueness to biologic life that exceeds mere DNA or ‘architectural’ arrangements and design. We can program to mimic behavior; we can “virtually” synthesize decision making processes; we can develop predictive learning models that can reach partially not-databased “conclusions.”

Whether it be a dog that gets excited 5 minutes before you arrive home, and the one day you arrive early yet the dog still knew you were approaching while you were 5 miles away and an hour early, or merely the word-less communication between a husband wife who have been emotionally close and together for fifty years: I do not see AI ever, ever, EVER replacing intuition and creative genius. Both of which can be argued to be components of both examples.
Human beings especially have an uncanny characteristic of intuition that is not even theorized within AI.

Further, I look at stable- or currently, actually declining - IQs in general as a conundrum. Our brains have a capacity far in excess of our usage, and it befuddles me to think as computing (forms of synthesized intelligence) has developed that ‘we’ have not ‘evolved’ greater numbers of neuropathways and general IQs have not risen. “We” are choosing as a society collectively to become lazy-minded and undriven to exceed ourselves so we are getting dummer as a society.
 
12VoltInstalls said:
That is theoretically possible, and a fun and perhaps worthy intellectual exercise.
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I am convinced it will happen, I do not think we humans are all that intelligent.

12VoltInstalls said:
However, there is a uniqueness to biologic life that exceeds mere DNA or ‘architectural’ arrangements and design. We can program to mimic behavior; we can “virtually” synthesize decision making processes; we can develop predictive learning models that can reach partially not-databased “conclusions.”

Whether it be a dog that gets excited 5 minutes before you arrive home, and the one day you arrive early yet the dog still knew you were approaching while you were 5 miles away and an hour early, or merely the word-less communication between a husband wife who have been emotionally close and together for fifty years: I do not see AI ever, ever, EVER replacing intuition and creative genius. Both of which can be argued to be components of both examples.
Human beings especially have an uncanny characteristic of intuition that is not even theorized within AI.

Further, I look at stable- or currently, actually declining - IQs in general as a conundrum. Our brains have a capacity far in excess of our usage, and it befuddles me to think as computing (forms of synthesized intelligence) has developed that ‘we’ have not ‘evolved’ greater numbers of neuropathways and general IQs have not risen. “We” are choosing as a society collectively to become lazy-minded and undriven to exceed ourselves so we are getting dummer as a society.
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But what will happen to the jobs we have now, AI will make humans obsolete in most area's. No employer is going to be able to compete on the "free" market with employers who do implement AI. When there are financial benefits to be gained, there is always some one who is going to try to take advantage of that, even if we block AI in the US and/or the UK.
 
LeoThomson said:
what will happen to the jobs we have now, AI will make humans obsolete in most area's. No employer is going to be able to compete on the "free" market with employers who do implement AI. When there are financial benefits to be gained, there is always some one who is going to try to take advantage of that, even if we block AI in the US and/or the UK
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You can just theorize flipping a switch someday and turning on AI

Society will respond.
If masses get income displaced then what I said earlier will be empowered; ‘we’ will wind up fighting the robots and anarchy will transition to peace as we in essence defeat ‘serfdom’ which was done over 200 years or more, and on a timeline sortof comes to death by 1781 or so.

There is no major change in society or cultures that does not, did not take time to develop, refine and grow into the culture. It is myopic to view otherwise - or we are at high, imminent risk of repeating history. Hitler, Ancient Rome, the Inquisition, Vietnam, Afghanistan…

You plunk down AI someday and disrupt income or(and) food and it will be anarchy everywhere.

To say humans aren’t intelligent?
That is by rote a comparison. It begs the question, “compared to what?”
Since we don’t have a plumb-line or reference block it’s a dubious conclusion- unless we are truly intelligent and can envision or create high intelligence but then the claim is self defeating.
 
12VoltInstalls said:
You can just theorize flipping a switch someday and turning on AI
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Once it happens, it will happen fast, people will be replaced by robots, office jobs replaced by computers. One of the first groups likely to take advantage will be the military in various countries. Autonomous drone that seek out targets and destroy them are a massive advantage.

12VoltInstalls said:
Society will respond.
If masses get income displaced then what I said earlier will be empowered; ‘we’ will wind up fighting the robots and anarchy will transition to peace as we in essence defeat ‘serfdom’ which was done over 200 years or more, and on a timeline sortof comes to death by 1781 or so.
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You like every one else will enjoy the cheap products and you will not do anything until it is too late. Robots will still work in a nuclear wasteland and adapt..

12VoltInstalls said:
There is no major change in society or cultures that does not, did not take time to develop, refine and grow into the culture. It is myopic to view otherwise - or we are at high, imminent risk of repeating history. Hitler, Ancient Rome, the Inquisition, Vietnam, Afghanistan…
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The US is about to implode, there are people on this forum advocating for an armed revolution for the freedom to force their religion down the throats of others.

12VoltInstalls said:
You plunk down AI someday and disrupt income or(and) food and it will be anarchy everywhere.
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Companies will implement AI, else they will not be able to compete. It will be gradual at first, but when the AI does it's own software upgrades it is hard to predict the rate of progress.

12VoltInstalls said:
To say humans aren’t intelligent?
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No we are not, we keep making similar mistakes over and over. Look at Russia invading Ukraine because Putin wants to make Russia great again and people all over the world are falling for nationalist nonsense like that, even in both our countries.

12VoltInstalls said:
That is by rote a comparison. It begs the question, “compared to what?”
Since we don’t have a plumb-line or reference block it’s a dubious conclusion- unless we are truly intelligent and can envision or create high intelligence but then the claim is self defeating.
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I think we can believe that one person is more intelligent than another, so we can and do make the comparisons. The fact that in the US half the voters believe the other one is dumb, proves that we are not intelligent.
 
LeoThomson said:
The US is about to implode, there are people on this forum advocating for an armed revolution for the freedom to force their religion down the throats of others.
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I think that is a small fringe. Maybe some keyboard warriors here. Everything gets played up by the media because that is what makes money.

The closest we come to imploding (other that due to government insolvency) is the rioting, burning, looting in the streets.
One town knew a march was coming, and the locals lined the streets holding firearms. Police escorted protestors to protect them. No violence or vandalism occurred.

A growing percentage of the population is demanding to be given something by the rest of the population. Entry of students into advanced placement classes is being stopped, in order to reduce the educational divide. It the US does implode, it will either be due to government no longer able to pay for its spending, or Venezuela style socialism killing productivity. Probably both.

The smarter half of the voters are correct that the other half is dumb. There is some distribution among the two main parties and the smaller ones.
 
Hedges said:
I think that is a small fringe. Maybe some keyboard warriors here. Everything gets played up by the media because that is what makes money.
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Lets hope you are right, you guys have had to suffer through one coup attempt recently by a former president, there is gerrymandering and a widespread attempt to disenfranchise voters. More than 2% of US voters are not even allowed to vote. As an outsider, I see things getting worse rather than better.

I understand the frustrations people have with the system, the news media is for profit and controversy/scandal seems to be more popular than a thought out comparison of the pro's and con's on any of the issues.
 
When I first moved to the lower 48 I was truly shocked by the street gangs in Hell-A

The Bloods vs the Cripts

Now we have the Redpublican and the Blueacrats

What is the difference

If you are in one gang, it’s your life to side with the other gang
 
They threw in the towel long ago. You have entered ... the Chit Chat Zone.


There is honest disagreement among U.S. citizens about what went on January 6th, and whether the President was encouraging legal expression of opinion, illegal action, or perhaps authorized force? But what happened there was certainly unusual, and not the way transition of power is supposed to occur.
 
I am the OP and this thread has drifted a long way off topic ?

But while we are speaking about apocalypse and the likes, has anyone read this blog (which also very much relates to renewable energy by the way)? Very interesting read, compelling arguments imo:

Do the Math | Using physics and estimation to assess energy, growth, options—by Tom Murphy

dothemath.ucsd.edu

Maybe a good post to start with is this one:

Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist | Do the Math

dothemath.ucsd.edu

He also has a free ebook with much of the material of his blog:

escholarship.org

Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet

Author(s): Murphy, Thomas W, Jr | Abstract: Note: a two-side version optimized for printing is available in Supplemental Materials. Where is humanity going? How realistic is a future of fusion and space colonies? What constraints are imposed by physics, by resource availability, and by human...
escholarship.org
 
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dddem said:
has anyone read this blog
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First time I have seen it. It matches many of my own thoughts, like infinite growth is not likely on a finite world, (expansion to other parts of the universe might be possible, but unlikely given the Fermi paradox) It gives me some new ideas to ponder upon.

Thanks for sharing.
 
LeoThomson said:
No we are not, we keep making similar mistakes over and over. Look at Russia invading Ukraine because Putin wants to make Russia great again and people all over the world are falling for nationalist nonsense like that, even in both our countries.
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Well that reveals your bias; nationalism does not equate colonizing or invading other countries. I have to work and be productive so the seven or 12 or more chapter book I can write just on your responses here it’s not only going to have to wait it’ll probably never be written. I think there’s too many intellectual leaps in your assertions.
 
Tecnodave said:
What is the difference
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Politics is more like the mafia gone bad, but polished up and ‘legal’ (sic). Gangs are more like intermittently controlled anarchy without any consistency in loyalty or respect.
The mafia can be thought of as a parallel reality that operated above and in spite of the law; gangs have no respect like the mafia did, or like Lee and Grant- but the gangs hate themselves and everyone else.
 
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12VoltInstalls said:
Well that reveals your bias; nationalism does not equate colonizing or invading other countries. I have to work and be productive so the seven or 12 or more chapter book I can write just on your responses here it’s not only going to have to wait it’ll probably never be written. I think there’s too many intellectual leaps in your assertions.
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robby said:
Yes that is pretty much an accurate summation. I think the Mayo Clinic is the most advanced hospital in the world.
I also think that half of the top ten Hospitals in the world are in the USA.
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I think you are confusing great technology and education with "Healthcare System"

You can have 10 out of 10 best hospitals in the world but when only world leader have access to them, you still don't have a healthcare system
LeoThomson said:
Once it happens, it will happen fast, people will be replaced by robots, office jobs replaced by computers. One of the first groups likely to take advantage will be the military in various countries. Autonomous drone that seek out targets and destroy them are a massive advantage.
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LeoThomson said:
But what will happen to the jobs we have now, AI will make humans obsolete in most area's.
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ask people from 50 years ago. Most jobs they worked back then are obsolete now. That is normal, almost all todays job will be obsolete at some point.

Nothin is permanent, people will do different "work" the "jobs" everyone will be working in 20-30 years have not been invented yet.
Being a Youtuber is now career, 10 years ago nobody did even know about the service.

The job title I had 20 years ago - doesn't exist anymore, the work is not necessary anymore. That is normal - we evolve.

AI will just cut disciplines which didn't had the conflict yet, Knowledge jobs, White collar. We got the highest automation of production these days and still there is a shortage of blue collar and trade people. A welder makes more then most college grad these days.

Don't fear AI, just don't assume that your job title will be there forever.
 
eXodus said:
ask people from 50 years ago. Most jobs they worked back then are obsolete now. That is normal, almost all todays job will be obsolete at some point.

Nothin is permanent, people will do different "work" the "jobs" everyone will be working in 20-30 years have not been invented yet.
The job title I had 20 years ago - doesn't exist anymore, the work is not necessary anymore. That is normal - we evolve.

AI will just cut disciplines which didn't had the conflict yet, Knowledge jobs, White collar. We got the highest automation of production these days and still there is a shortage of blue collar and trade people. A welder makes more then most college grad these days.

Don't fear AI, just don't assume that your job title will be there forever.
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I do not fear AI, I can't think of a job that AI, together with robots, can't do better than I can. And I am looking forward to not having to work anymore.
 
LeoThomson said:
I do not fear AI, I can't think of a job that AI, together with robots, can't do better than I can.
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We need to think in different concepts. Work is something you do. (Physics you know)
A job is work you do for someone else.

Back in the old days Job = Work + Purpose

But today those can be separated.

No partner, friends, kids, animals or plants in your life? Being there for them is work, the nuances in behavior will take a few more decades for a AI to learn. We needed hundred thousand of years of evaluation to pickup on tiny changes in body language, pheromonal content, behavior patterns etc.

It is highly likely that you will work forever, because not working meaning you are laying in bed all day. You very likely will not have the same job.

You are looking forward not working for someone else anymore ;)
 
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