New Tariffs in the States

Zwy said:

Tariffs increase the costs= inflation

No politician will increase tariffs in an election year unless it fills their pocket and they plan on leaving office.

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That is also true, but I believe things have changed. I think the overriding reason this year is to get elected/stay elected by any means. The rise of authoritarianism requires continuity. Appeal to our lack of taking the time to actually become informed about things and instead react emotionally to misinformation and outright crap being spewed from all corners.

Nobody tries to surreptitiously manipulate us any more, they just flat-out say "Do this, you idiots. And don't bitch about it - you can't change things anyway. We know what's best."

As far as inflation goes - we led a very charmed life there for a long time. The low-hanging fruit of easily extracted/plentiful raw materials and resources is swiftly drawing to a close. Things are catching up to that and we are paying more.

Since we can't as a society pull our heads out and collectively fix the big stuff, you are left to your own devices to do what you can individually. But that's what the forum is all about ;-)

(sorry about going off-track here - I guess this belongs in chit-chat. I will shut up.)

AntronX said:

If they are meant to be used for storage then it can be argued they are non EV. This means we got until 2026 to stock up on LFP cells before we get hit with ~$13/cell tariff (for 300Ah cell).

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yeah same as what I figured out this morning. I'm buying another 64.

"The tariff rate on semiconductors will increase from 25% to 50% by 2025."

Think about what this means for a USA based company designing electronic products.

You can build those devices in the USA with imported parts tariffed at 50%.

Or you can build those devices in China (or other Asian locations) where the parts have no tariff and your finished device might not, either.

Guess which one is cheaper.

Guess which one costs more USA jobs.

My company is facing this very question for our future products. We've been mostly USA based production, but the tariff increase is adding considerable motivation to move it overseas due to labor and part costs being so much cheaper.

Mike C.

mciholas said:

Think about what this means for a USA based company designing electronic products.

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Yes for example lets take NXP semiconductors that sold their LDMOS transistor division with patents to Chinese investors (renamed into Ampleon) so now we have to pay 15% tariff and soon 50% on western designed parts made in China because Chinese bought the rights to it. I'd love to see tariff exceptions in cases like these.

Yet another reference here. Two key statements of interest to us:

"As well as a tariff increase from 25% to 100% on EVs, levies will rise from 7.5% to 25% on lithium batteries, from zero to 25% on critical minerals, from 25% to 50% on solar cells, and from 25% to 50% on semiconductors."

and

"The new tariffs will kick in after 90 days from Tuesday – a period that will be closely watched for signs of tit-for-tat retaliation by China"

I lived through this when Trump bumped tarrifs on cybercoin miners from 2.5% percent to 27.5%. Like Lithium batteries, those came almost exclusively from China. Companies that had stocks on US shores tended to sell at original prices, mostly using the upcoming tarrif implementation as a "buy now, not later" sales technique. Once the tarrifs hit, they were collected by customs - so the "sale" price for the miners was the same if you were importing directly from China (like most did, working via companies like Bitmain), but you got hit with a customs charge when they hit the US border. Companies like Fed-Ex would pay those charges, then bill you for them (I personally got hit for several thousand dollars months after receiving gear). Once implemented, advertised prices from USA retailers came in two forms "Including tarrifs and taxes" and "Excluding tarrifs and taxes".

Despite what the then President stated, China did NOT pay those tarrifs, US companies and individuals did.

Bottom line: we have about a 3 month grace period before prices will rise in the USA, unless China reduces their prices to compensate. Can't see that happening until there are non-Chinese manufacturers in the our market space.

So before 90 days I need to find a homestead, move to it, and buy all my solar panels for it.
Or... take the panels off my roof and take them with me. Patch the holes before putting the house up for sale. Can't say I haven't thought about doing that. (21x 400W REC panels).

But that's only if we are certain we're moving. And at current interest rates and property prices, it doesn't look all that feasible at times. Given what I paid for this house and our current interest rate, I couldn't afford to buy it today at current prices and rates. Insane.

SparkyJJO said:

So before 90 days I need to find a homestead, move to it, and buy all my solar panels for it.
Or... take the panels off my roof and take them with me. Patch the holes before putting the house up for sale. Can't say I haven't thought about doing that. (21x 400W REC panels).

But that's only if we are certain we're moving. And at current interest rates and property prices, it doesn't look all that feasible at times. Given what I paid for this house and our current interest rate, I couldn't afford to buy it today at current prices and rates. Insane.

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So buy the panels now, and if you don’t move in three months, they will be more valuable and you can sell them for a profit.

Mattb4 said:

Anything over "D" size?

One thing I thought after hearing that they were going to place huge tariffs on imported electrical cars from China, which they say sell for ~$14 thousand over there, was why? I could afford a car in that price range and I imagine a lot of other folks could more easily afford it also. They said it was necessary to save our Auto industry who only seems to want to sell electric vehicles to rich people. Or at least those that can help pay for it with huge tax subsidies ordinary folks have no access to.

If Detroit can not make cars and trucks that ordinary people can afford they have forgotten Henry Fords legacy.

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Same reason they are threatening Mexico to not build Chinese car production facilities.
They truly do not care about whatever rationale they tell the public.
Only power, control, and money.

wpns said:

No-one can because it’s not that easy balancing all the factors (range, power, size, mass, cost), and the US consumer has proven over and over again that ’size matters’, and it’s the Suburban Assault Vehicles that sell, while the $25K EVs are either never produced (looking at you, Tesla) or sit on the lot awaiting a fire sale.

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People buy suburban assault vehicles because that’s what Detroit puts out on purpose to avoid certain fuel economy targets
They don’t try to innovate and problem solve, just skirt the rules
They don’t make small EV because they don’t want to

G00SE said:

People buy suburban assault vehicles because that’s what Detroit puts out on purpose to avoid certain fuel economy targets
They don’t try to innovate and problem solve, just skirt the rules
They don’t make small EV because they don’t want to

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Um, people weren't buying enough of the other stuff. The car makers were mostly building what people were buying. Conveniently, because more people wanted them, they had a higher profit margin too.

Not enough people here want small EVs.

SparkyJJO said:

Um, people weren't buying enough of the other stuff. The car makers were mostly building what people were buying. Conveniently, because more people wanted them, they had a higher profit margin too.

Not enough people here want small EVs.

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People weren’t buying the other stuff cuz gas was 2 bucks a gallon. The economy and auto market are both completely different than 5 years ago

v_green57 said:

That is also true, but I believe things have changed. I think the overriding reason this year is to get elected/stay elected by any means. The rise of authoritarianism requires continuity. Appeal to our lack of taking the time to actually become informed about things and instead react emotionally to misinformation and outright crap being spewed from all corners.

Nobody tries to surreptitiously manipulate us any more, they just flat-out say "Do this, you idiots. And don't bitch about it - you can't change things anyway. We know what's best."

As far as inflation goes - we led a very charmed life there for a long time. The low-hanging fruit of easily extracted/plentiful raw materials and resources is swiftly drawing to a close. Things are catching up to that and we are paying more.

Since we can't as a society pull our heads out and collectively fix the big stuff, you are left to your own devices to do what you can individually. But that's what the forum is all about ;-)

(sorry about going off-track here - I guess this belongs in chit-chat. I will shut up.)

Click to expand...

It took me awhile to put 2 and 2 together. Sourcing parts has been somewhat difficult the last few years, first it was supply chain issues but by now it should have reversed. I heard some time ago that companies had been moving production to India from China. The factories had to be built, equipment installed and training a workforce. This must be finished and now trade restrictions on China will be enacted. All makes sense now.

mciholas said:

"The tariff rate on semiconductors will increase from 25% to 50% by 2025."

Think about what this means for a USA based company designing electronic products.

You can build those devices in the USA with imported parts tariffed at 50%.

Or you can build those devices in China (or other Asian locations) where the parts have no tariff and your finished device might not, either.

Guess which one is cheaper.

Guess which one costs more USA jobs.

My company is facing this very question for our future products. We've been mostly USA based production, but the tariff increase is adding considerable motivation to move it overseas due to labor and part costs being so much cheaper.

Mike C.

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Sounds like things are going exactly as planned.

Zwy said:

Tariffs increase the costs= inflation

No politician will increase tariffs in an election year unless it fills their pocket and they plan on leaving office.

Click to expand...

Or they're so sure they aren't going to lose the election they don't care what the little people think.

Primal1 said:

Or they're so sure they aren't going to lose the election they don't care what the little people think.

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The pot of gold is waiting once they leave office, voluntarily or involuntarily.

Zwy said:

The pot of gold is waiting once they leave office, voluntarily or involuntarily.

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And ice cream.

Well it at least appears that Battery Cells for the DIY Crowd are SAFE FOR NOW - there is that November thing in the US -
SCC's Inverters, AIO's seems like are going to get a smaller hit for now.

I personally would not "sit back" too long though, things have an un-funny way of changing.

The tariff rate on lithium-ion EV batteries will increase from 7.5%% to 25% in 2024, while the tariff rate on lithium-ion non-EV batteries will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2026. The tariff rate on battery parts will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2024. From the whitehouse site itself.

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I wonder "what" they will consider "Battery Parts". I suspect BMS' will be such.

AntronX said:

Brucey said:

Remains to be seen if the traditional prismatic cells are considered "non EV" as they can be assembled into an EV battery.

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If they are meant to be used for storage then it can be argued they are non EV. This means we got until 2026 to stock up on LFP cells before we get hit with ~$13/cell tariff (for 300Ah cell).

Click to expand...

If they're in a welded-jumper assembly, inside a completed storage system, with neither the system being suitable for building into an EV as part of its integrated battery nor the battery assembly being removed and used as a component of one, it would be hard for customs to treat it as anything but non-EV. (Not impossible, of course, and an appeal might take until the non-EV tariff kicked in...)

Of course this means storage systems using dual-use-capable cells will only be assembled abroad, because domestic manufacturers would have to pay tariff on the cells.

Also, for the next couple years EV and non-EV cells will not have a combined economy of scale, a smaller benefit from technology improvement, and their manufacturing won't get increased stability due to merging distinct fluctuating demands (e.g. depression of EV sales leading to more availability of cells for storage systems, letting the cell manufacturer continue running at the same rate at only a small income hit from market signaling rather than ramping down and taking a BIG income hit from lower output and competition fighting for market share.)

The Chinese have been getting around existing tariffs by shipping through other south east asian countrys.
They may be able to figure a way to get around the new tariffs.
The only thing certain about laws/rules/regulations in this country is that they always contain loopholes.

Tariffs are applied based on where final assembly for a good takes place.

Finally assembly could be a single screw

Steve_S said:

I wonder "what" they will consider "Battery Parts". I suspect BMS' will be such.

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I'd bet that's a "yes".

If so, I wonder if they'll apply (all or some of) the tariff to storage systems containing Chinese BMSes. If not, it's another strike to US domestic battery manufacturers vs. foreign competition.