dholbrookp
New Member
Residential Solar Is In Trouble
Complicated financial products helped the U.S. rooftop-solar-power industry grow, but now put it at risk of implosion.
Another year, another warning for solar industries collapse
- Thread starter dholbrookp
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SkyBlue
New Member
As the article above notes, many states are changing their net metering rules, often at the request of for-profit power corporations. These net metering changes are reducing or eliminating the economic advantages of rooftop solar. In California, for example, rooftop solar installations supposedly are down between 70% and 80% since the state's Public Utilities Commission drastically reduced credits earned through the net metering program. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12...ies-are-high-risk-more-bankruptcy-on-the-way/ California and other states are currently considering additional rate setting changes that will further reduce or totally eliminate the economic benefit of rooftop solar for most households. So yes, the future of rooftop solar is dim in much of America, but I think the main reason for this is that the power companies simply don't want the competition.
It also means the future of battery storage is bright, unless they kill that too with regulations
Sorry but I felt this deserves a comment. Going from a regulatory and tax subsidized era that forced power companies to accept home generated solar to a neutral stance is not the same thing as wanting to avoid competition. It might upset the individual producer to realize that their ability to sell to the electrical company is now on the same level as other wholesalers but why should they get special status?
I am sure the power company is happy to buy residential solar power at a rate they can make money selling it to their customers at. That means the roof top solar must compete with other producers.
Hogheavenfarm
Regulation Stifles Innovation
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What begins as an incentive usually morphs into a requirement over time. Solar was launched with pretty good incentives for buyback, but it is currently being reduced, and will eventually (maybe quite soon) become required to build into all housing with no incentives at all, but the amount required will not be enough to maintain an "off the grid" lifestyle, as they still need to sell power, but if their cost is zero (you are providing it) then it can still be sold at a profit. The requirements would have to provide for no storage though, just a grid-tied system only, or restrictions on the AIO's that prevent you from turning off the supply to the grid any time. Both could happen, the power companies hold alot of pull when it comes to legislation and regulation. Just my opinion, although I must add, I do believe there will be a significant pull back on solar starting next year, for entirely different reasons.
The big problem with RTS is production times. Any time it produces power our homes aren’t consuming, OTHER homes aren’t consuming either…
Utilities wanna buy power when demand is high, and the vast majority or residential solar produces off peak…
Utilities wanna buy power when demand is high, and the vast majority or residential solar produces off peak…
I think it is important to understand what time frame is being used to make these decisions, on the part of the PoCos. As I have said before, I think many (if not most) of the PoCos are following in the footsteps of Ma Bell in the 70's and 80's. Monopolies which owned the entire vertical slice of their business, with a regulated model which was profitable. They are fighting hard to keep that model, even as the world and the economics of their playing field are changing. It did not work for Ma Bell and I expect it will not work for the PoCos either, in the long run.
In the short run, PoCos can't be expected to buy power from customers at a rate that is unprofitable for long. But killing net metering is not the only way to solve this. Many PoCo do net metering but with limits (you can only sell back up to what you will later use within some timeframe, or to some predefined maximum). Killing net metering will (actually is already) having unintended consequences such as pushing people to put in systems that supply all their own power, allowing them to stop using the grid almost entirely (eliminating them as a customer in effect). Putting more regulations and "tarrifs" on home power generation cannot stop the fact that it is already more economical to generate your own power than to buy it from the PoCo over the long run, and seems destined to be more so in the future. Anymore than the added charges Ma Bell put in place for folks that wanted to use their own phones or alternative long distance carriers allowed their business model to remain viable back in that day.
PoCos are coming from an environment where they own the power generation and own the transmission facilities; if you want power you pay them to be connected and whatever the going rate they charge is. All well and good when that was the only game in town, but it's not anymore. Technology has changed the playing field, many homes and businesses can make their own power for way less than the PoCo wants to charge, and do so reliably. Whether they use the grid for backup and to sell excess to is up for grabs, but is no longer really necessary to have the economics work for most. All the regulation and charges wrangling is ultimately not going to change this.
The PoCos can either see what's going on, and modify their business model in a way that aligns with the new realities, or go down with their "sinking ship".
It is not in my location more economical for me to generate solar power than simply buying kWh from the Co-Op. I expect this is true in a lot of the country. Without the grid acting as a huge battery for the grid tie folks they would also find it to be uneconomical. That may change as battery prices drop and equipment to allow it becomes more common.
Large scale is always going to give the benefit over individual. Might not be great to have only 3 Cell phone carriers that get to dictate customer choice but it is a classic of the way economy functions. If not regulated there would already likely be the new Ma Bell.
HighDesertOffgrid
Solar Addict
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100%
The days of PoCos paying for your PV system are rapidly drawing to a close. Someone has to pay for the infrastructure and it's maintenance.
teal95
Solar Enthusiast
3 (or more with data sublease) cells carriers beats the he!! out of Ma Bell being the only choice.
Comparing the current PoCo situation to the end of landlines is probably pretty good. Their world is changing but they can't see it. My BiL is the manager for the lineman for a small REMC. He completely discounts solar ever working for individual customers. Maybe for him living in the north edge of a woods will never work but for many of us it does.
That said after commissioning another 20 kW of panels on top of the 8 kW I already have it would probably take another 20 kW of panels for me to make I through winter. But I should have plenty of power for summer.
Comparing the current PoCo situation to the end of landlines is probably pretty good. Their world is changing but they can't see it. My BiL is the manager for the lineman for a small REMC. He completely discounts solar ever working for individual customers. Maybe for him living in the north edge of a woods will never work but for many of us it does.
That said after commissioning another 20 kW of panels on top of the 8 kW I already have it would probably take another 20 kW of panels for me to make I through winter. But I should have plenty of power for summer.
dholbrookp
New Member
I just wanted to thank everyone who responded, this has all been very respectful and informative. I feel I have benefitted from even where your opinions differed. Thanks!
Hedges
I See Electromagnetic Fields!
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In California, new homes are required to have PV installed. Turnkey install costs $0.10/kWh amortized over 20 years.
In California, new rooftop PV installs are credited about $0.04/kWh for backfeeding the grid.
It is mandatory to pay some $10,000 for rooftop solar (depending on expected power consumption) and if you don't need the power at that instant, you are credited about 40%, for a loss of 60%.
If you also spend money on batteries ($0.05 to $0.10, up to $0.50 for some brands, per kWh) then you can use the power you produce later the day.
If you get appliances that operate at variable speed, that may also help match consumption to production. Running refrigeration away from optimum speed will reduce efficiency (compared to your unit and the neighbors' each cycling on and off.)
The utilities attempted to get a photon tax implemented in California. That would have been a monthly fee for solar panels installed. It worked out to about $0.08/kWh, whether you use the power or exported to the grid. As first proposed, the photon tax would have exceeded the backfeed credit, meaning consumers pay the utility for exporting power. It was not adopted this time. Other states already have a photon tax.
In California, new rooftop PV installs are credited about $0.04/kWh for backfeeding the grid.
It is mandatory to pay some $10,000 for rooftop solar (depending on expected power consumption) and if you don't need the power at that instant, you are credited about 40%, for a loss of 60%.
If you also spend money on batteries ($0.05 to $0.10, up to $0.50 for some brands, per kWh) then you can use the power you produce later the day.
If you get appliances that operate at variable speed, that may also help match consumption to production. Running refrigeration away from optimum speed will reduce efficiency (compared to your unit and the neighbors' each cycling on and off.)
The utilities attempted to get a photon tax implemented in California. That would have been a monthly fee for solar panels installed. It worked out to about $0.08/kWh, whether you use the power or exported to the grid. As first proposed, the photon tax would have exceeded the backfeed credit, meaning consumers pay the utility for exporting power. It was not adopted this time. Other states already have a photon tax.
zanydroid
Solar Wizard
I believe the requirement has been solar + storage for a few years.
dougbert
Solar Addict
SPOT ON. I have been building my home system now for 25 years. I have swapped out older tech for newer tech and more capabilities. I am totally OFF GRID from april to oct now. I am in process increasing both solar generator and battery depth. The goal is to be off grid all year long. It will take me time now, as I recently retired, but I will get there. I do have grid and use it to charge the battery during long cloudy times via a chargeverter. I DO NOT DO netmetering. the grid is my backup "generator" and I have fuel generators as a backup for when the grid fails me
Self-ish Solar Motif for me: produce it here, store it here, use it here
dougbert
Solar Addict
flock that
fromport
Solar Addict
As of April 2023 NEM3.0 was introduced. That basically means you need storage to get an ROI < 30 years.
Hedges
I See Electromagnetic Fields!
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I didn't think that was true, but here's an article that says storage required for multi-family and commercial. "storage ready" required for single family.
California first state to require solar power and batteries in commercial structures
The state has updated its Build Energy Efficiency Standards to include requirements for solar plus storage on all commercial and multifamily homes, while also requiring that all new residential construction - which already requires solar - to be energy storage ready.
pv-magazine-usa.com
What this means is that when batteries start fires in low-income housing killing poor and POC families, the evil landlords will be blamed. For what was the government's fault.
PV, and storage, can be deployed at the utility scale. It costs a fraction of what residential scale costs, and avoids many safety issues. Repair turn-around would be much shorter.
"In addition to the commercial requirements, new residential construction must also be battery ready. This requires that new homes have a 225-amp busbar, four backed-up circuits (two of which must be the refrigerator and bedroom receptacle outlet), and also a subpanel or a split-bus main panel for those circuits."
Close to what I choose to do. Because I want to and can afford it. Not everyone is so lucky, but they must dig deep, do without something else.
zanydroid
Solar Wizard
I was referring to Title 24 not NEM3, but I need to check what title 24 says. I’m basing on a discussion I had with a developer a while back that had to put in storage for their new construction in LA
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