Another year, another warning for solar industries collapse

[JRH]

I believe solar sales is way dirtier than used car sales and I hope the hammer comes down on all the shady companies and practices.

Damn right… ranks right there with RV sales and Timeshare sale…..I see so many people I know getting hammered by installer/ sales people….and online sites too.
But I guess that’s the way it goes..eventually the big guys will step in a start with the same old regulatory mandates on everything Solar…..it always happens this way on everything…

 

[zanydroid]

"In addition to the commercial requirements, new residential construction must also be battery ready. This requires that new homes have a 225-amp busbar, four backed-up circuits (two of which must be the refrigerator and bedroom receptacle outlet), and also a subpanel or a split-bus main panel for those circuits."

I stand corrected on single family (learned about it while talking to a duplex builder).

I think ESS ready is OK, it’s not a huge extra cost ($500?). We already require pre wire for EV and electric water heater in most counties (by population). It’s also more efficient to pre plan locations for ESS and tying in power. Esp if it just involves designing at blueprint level and stamping it out for a bunch of houses. Imagine how much less spam about splitting panels we would have to answer on this forum.

Mandating ESS and solar is a lot of $$$ though. It would be better to allow other points for achieving carbon reduction. Like shares in utility scale community solar or something. That seems more efficient

 

[ksmithaz1]

What begins as an incentive usually morphs into a requirement over time. Solar was launched with pretty good incentives for buyback, but it is currently being reduced, and will eventually (maybe quite soon) become required to build into all housing with no incentives at all, but the amount required will not be enough to maintain an "off the grid" lifestyle, as they still need to sell power, but if their cost is zero (you are providing it) then it can still be sold at a profit. The requirements would have to provide for no storage though, just a grid-tied system only, or restrictions on the AIO's that prevent you from turning off the supply to the grid any time. Both could happen, the power companies hold alot of pull when it comes to legislation and regulation. Just my opinion, although I must add, I do believe there will be a significant pull back on solar starting next year, for entirely different reasons.

My understanding is they are already doing some of this in California.

 

[LydMekk]

In relation to this: Norway has started talking seriously about taxing solar owners sale/export to the grid as income.
The issue is that politicians are looking to other countries and markets for taxation possibilities so THIS WILL SPREAD.
Be on the lookout for export-to-grid taxation in 2024.

 

[fromport]

I was referring to Title 24 not NEM3, but I need to check what title 24 says. I’m basing on a discussion I had with a developer a while back that had to put in storage for their new construction in LA

My neighbor built a new guest house on their property, got approval in January 2023 for enphase grid tie system only. No batteries needed.

 

[ksmithaz1]

In relation to this: Norway has started talking seriously about taxing solar owners sale/export to the grid as income.
The issue is that politicians are looking to other countries and markets for taxation possibilities so THIS WILL SPREAD.
Be on the lookout for export-to-grid taxation in 2024.

Not enough money. Cost more to keep up with it that it would generate. Wide open to fraud. But hey, it's Norway.

 

[zanydroid]

My neighbor built a new guest house on their property, got approval in January 2023 for enphase grid tie system only. No batteries needed.

There’s some ADU exemptions, and it says ESS ready as well. Also they might have submitted before revision was approved. It might be based on application date.

 

[zanydroid]

Not enough money. Cost more to keep up with it that it would generate. Wide open to fraud. But hey, it's Norway.

How would it be hard to track? The meters are smart, trusted, and reasonably secure hardware in western countries. Social trust and mores frown on people jacking with their meters and stealing power; it’s considered scummy and uncouth in polite company . In a lower trust country with rampant existing electrical metering abuse I may agree with you.

EDIT: as well as soon as you net meter they’re already tracking your usage for crediting your account. If you meant taxing same day self consumption, sure that would be a change to the social contract

 

[Danke]

In relation to this: Norway has started talking seriously about taxing solar owners sale/export to the grid as income.
The issue is that politicians are looking to other countries and markets for taxation possibilities so THIS WILL SPREAD.
Be on the lookout for export-to-grid taxation in 2024.

Of course…

 

[ksmithaz1]

EDIT: as well as soon as you net meter they’re already tracking your usage for crediting your account. If you meant taxing same day self consumption, sure that would be a change to the social contract

It would be like sales tax, ummm, sort of, only now you are making the power company collect it for you. So now we create a new taxing system akin to Sales tax. Sales tax is annoying but generates a crap-ton of revenue, so it's worth it. ie. I own a store every time someone spends $10 I tack on $1 for the governor. I sell a LOT of $10's. A small pizza joint $30K/mo, thats $3K/mo. Lots' of pizza joints, and Targets and convenience stores and .... Now take local power company. Gets to keep track of sell back maybe $15/mo on average? For a small fraction of customers, maybe 10,000? So I'm going to generate $15000 worth of revenue every month. Ludicrous. Drastically less revenue than increasing sales tax by .001... IE stupid, you are chasing micro-dollars.

Same problem with trying to tax "rich people"s income. There aren't enough of them, compared to the tax revenue you are trying to get, so gradually the tax moves down to ever lower income brackets, because the real money comes from skimming smaller amounts from a vastly larger pool of victims, er taxpayers.

 

[zanydroid]

They already levy literally 10 separate penny sized assessments per kWh in California so the billing is a solved sunk cost after you decide to do the first one

 

[ksmithaz1]

They already levy literally 10 separate penny sized assessments per kWh in California so the billing is a solved sunk cost after you decide to do the first one

True, but the revenue will be ZERO. No revenue impact at all. Like when Great Britain started taxing income of $1M at 105%. Static models produced significant revenue, somehow nobody made that much money until that was repealed under Thatcher. Odd that. Further those assessments you speak of are hitting every dollar of every bill, commercial (lotsa $$$) and residental, not just the fractional pathetic backfeed $$ from a handful of customers. Political suicide IMNSHO, no revenue and p*ss everyone off. Sounds like a lose-lose for anyone dumb enough to push a bill thru.

 

[zanydroid]

Further those assessments you speak of are hitting every dollar of every bill, commercial (lotsa $$$) and residental, not just the fractional pathetic backfeed $$

They are already assessing $0.02 (Non bypassable charges) on every kWh imported on all net metering customers ONLY. This specific one is not assessed for any other customer type

They can add another $0.005 to this with a bit more computer code

Political suicide? Maybe. Depends on if this is viewed as a tax on imputed income etc