Source for predicting cloud cover?

[JaVid]

On a seasonal basis, I can see value. However, on a daily basis, I question the logic of your position. This implies that you only have a day or two of wood on hand. This seems inconsistent with typical practices of those that use wood for heat. Wear and tear seem like a red herring as you're going to have to do it at some level regardless of the weather, and generating more fuel at one time generally maximizes the economy.

My neighbor heats his 3200 sq-ft timber frame with SIPS (insane insulation) almost exclusively with a wood burning stove. He can supplement with a propane furnace if he needs to, but that is used almost exclusively to maintain ~50°F when they leave the house for about a week. He keeps an entire season's worth of wood on hand, so the day to day consumption of wood and how it relates to the weather is irrelevant.

My other neighbor has a smaller timber frame and a couple of shed to house conversions with wood burning stoves. They too have a substantial supply of wood on hand.

In both cases, they spend a few days per year dedicated to harvesting and processing wood. Sure, this isn't Wisconsin, but ENE AZ at 6500 ft is pretty chilly. This morning's low was 16, and it's 34 now.

It seems to make more sense to have a large wood "battery" to draw from when needed. Much like modern production line, time spend generating larger quantities of an item generally maximize the benefit of time spent rather than doing it many more times with smaller yields at lower efficiency.

I must not have communicated very well. I have a couple years of wood cut and split and covered in reserve. When I burn this, I need to replenish it.

Maybe you have to experience heating with wood to know what is involved. Without electric heat, I need to basically have a fire going from October - April. That's seven months of all-day burning and anyone who has burned wood for heat in northern climate will tell you its a long season and way more time/energy investment than a couple of days a year. Its multiple times daily effort and each piece of wood needs to be handled personally at least 5 times - cutting, splitting, stacking, unstacking and bringing inside, picking up and putting in the fire.

Since I have added battery and panels and mini splits, I only have to make fires November - Feb. That's only 4 months and even in those months, I have 30-40% of my heating met by electric and my batteries give me flexibility in my fire making. I burn 50% less wood annually. My daily load management that involves looking at solar forecast takes about 10 minutes a day all in - way less time than basic fire tending for seven months (and not even accounting for firewood harvest/split/carry time/energy). If I had better forecasting tools, the ROI would be even better and I could automate more.

 

[pvdude]

My method for forecasting overcast conditions is:
- If I need to run big loads (water heater, heat pump, pool pumps, etc), it will be cloudy.
- If I do not need any significant power, it will be sunny.

But more seriously, I have been working to "over-panel" for the last two seasons, still not enough PV
in place to compensate for overcast conditions, but improving PV output, incrementally, each year.

 

[rhino]

Just realized the https://solcast.com/ website mentioned earlier is also the same company that Victron uses for their Solar Production Forecast on the Victron VRM site. Reading up on it here there is even solar irradiance graph you could use and integrate with a Node-RED and trigger actions based on that.. So obviously even Victron thinks this is of substantial value .. and for people that don't have Victron equipment you can still use https://solcast.com/ directly.

 

[sunshine_eggo]

Just realized the https://solcast.com/ website mentioned earlier is also the same company that Victron uses for their Solar Production Forecast on the Victron VRM site. Reading up on it here there is even solar irradiance graph you could use and integrate with a Node-RED and trigger actions based on that.. So obviously even Victron thinks this is of substantial value .. and for people that don't have Victron equipment you can still use https://solcast.com/ directly.

I've been very pleased with the Victron PV forecast. Beat it today.

 

[ChrisG]

I use the OpenWeatherMap APIs to trigger a grid charge if cloud cover over 50% or precipitation over 40% when below 20% SOC using Home Assistant.