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LFP for EV's projected to be less than $56 per kWh within 6 months

Two new factories announced Wednesday in South Carolina will continue the expansion of electric vehicle supply chain businesses in the Carolinas.

Charlotte-based Albemarle Corporation says it will spend $1.3 billion to build a new lithium processing facility on 800 acres in Chester County, about 40 miles south of Charlotte. Albemarle says the plant will hire 300 people to process lithium from its mines around the world or from recycled batteries. Construction could begin in 2024.

Meanwhile, Charlotte-based Cirba Solutions announced plans for a $300 million factory at an industrial park near Columbia that will also create 300 jobs. The plant will extract lithium and other metals from used hybrid and electric vehicle batteries for recycling into new batteries.

An electric vehicle battery company, which first announced plans to build a Florence County facility, doubled its planned investment in South Carolina. Envision Automotive Energy Supply Co. now plans to build a $1.62 billion facility in Florence County, instead of an $810 million project announced last year. Dec 12, 2023
 
time2roll said:
Sales data cited by Heatmap actually show that "sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter of 2023 exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2021."
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This is how they lie by interpreting data with positive spin. Here is a chart from the data cited above. BEV sales growth has stalled since Q2 of 2023. Chart spans 2011 - 2023 by month. Attached below is excel .zip file if anyone wants to play with the data. Edit: data is for USA only.
ev-growth-2011-2023.PNG
 

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Might be better to see a graph of total EVs on the road each month before saying adoption has fallen or even stalled.
I see close to 100,000 EVs getting adopted every month. Says to me the growth of growth might be slowing but more EVs still on the road each week.
 
But the factories are expanding to accommodate continuing growth. Growth stalls while battery factories expand = oversupply and price crash. This is what we are seeing now.
 
It will take time, but as the big players get more deeply involved in EV’s, prices will come down, and hopefully repair cost will also come down.

They’ve priced normal people out of the market. But I do see a simple $20-$30,000 EV in the future.
 
ChrisG said:
My cart full of 304s at 18650batterystore is making my itchy. Have to pull back the reigns.
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ChrisG said:
My cart full of 304s at 18650batterystore is making my itchy. Have to pull back the reigns.
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Pricing is way better than I expected if that's accurate. $120+shipping for "560" which is actually I think in the 600s versus $109+shipping for a 304. Not sure we'll see much off the shelf battery product using these due to the massive weight but a boon for diyers where we can stack each cell in place one by one
 
I'm in agreement on the price. There needs to be a lower entry point.
I have a commute less than one mile and drive 200 miles in a single day, maybe twice a year. I'm not against EV at all, but how about a simple concept with normal door handles, isn't connected to the cloud and has heat and air conditioning. Good old fashioned get me there and back design.

But im getting off topic.....
 
What’s the latest on a State side LFP cell facility?

I thought one was in the works.

Also there are economical EV and have been for quite some time (cough leaf cough bolt) they just haven’t made “normal” EV offerings.
 
Will Prowse said:
www.nextbigfuture.com

EV LFP Battery Price War at Less Than $56 per kWh Within Six Months | NextBigFuture.com

CATL has new rectangular LFP batteries. The LFP EV battery price will be less than $56 per kWh within six months. It is a bigger rectangular battery with each
www.nextbigfuture.com www.nextbigfuture.com

I hope we see some of these price decreases for stationary storage LFP!

But check out the comments. An individual shared this opinion:

Alexthinks
January 16, 2024 at 10:12 pm
This is not good news. The reason for the price war is a global slowdown in EV adoption. Now, battery makers have so much overcapacity they are slashing prices in a race to avoid bankruptcy. How many companies have already invested billions and billions of dollars in half finished factories and battery lines that will not be needed? This will put an instant halt to any new battery factories being built or new capacity going online. This is going to financially crush every company that has made huge investments in battery factories. All the small players will go bankrupt, the larger ones will have massive write-downs that will crush their stock price. Forget about gaining market share in a global price war, with the gigantic investments that have been committed to, companies will be simply fighting to survive the impending cash crunch. As always, Brian, I love your research. It’s time to start calculating who’s the most at risk and then short their stock.
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This was predicted some time ago.

Watch this part of this video:

It was originally linked in this thread. I suggest watching the whole video to get an understanding of how the world is currently being transformed concerning energy and transportation.
 
G00SE said:
IF ev sales are faltering I’d blame the manufacturers for predominantly offering 60k vehicles and not something for the entry level buyer
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There are a number of models out there under $50K. I like to compare the Kona since is is a smallish vehicle available as both EV and ICE. Base Kona EV is $33K, non EV is $24K. The primary expense is unfortunately the batteries. ~60-70KWH of battery pack is the 250 mile sweet spot, and that is adding around $10K to the cost of manufacturing the vehicle. I think most of the manufacturers are actually taking a margin hit on the batteries, thus a significant drop in the price of cells will significantly drop the retail cost of some of the less expensive EV's.

So what happens is someone willing to drop the extra $10K for an EV likely doesn't really want a stripped down car, so they would rarely opt for the 'SE' low end trim, and are going for the 'Limited' or 'Ultimate' trim, which bumps the price on up to $42K. Subsequently you are not going to see a lot of inexpensive trim EV's, because like me they are in for a penny, in for a pound.
 
Skinny76 said:
I'm in agreement on the price. There needs to be a lower entry point.
I have a commute less than one mile and drive 200 miles in a single day, maybe twice a year. I'm not against EV at all, but how about a simple concept with normal door handles, isn't connected to the cloud and has heat and air conditioning. Good old fashioned get me there and back design.

But im getting off topic.....
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Move to Lady Lake FL, and get a souped up golf cart with everyone else that lives there.
 
I just watched a video about the cold snap charging snafu's in Chicago .... Seems like a big part of it is the large number of Uber and Lyft drivers who are renting an EV.

Insufficient reliable EV charging is still a big limiting factor in EV sales.

Kind of interesting video here ....
 
 
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AntronX said:
You know you can scroll down right?

abcnews.go.com

Electric vehicle sales are slowing. No need for panic yet, insiders say.

EV sales slowed down in 2023. Will the trend reverse this year?
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
www.usatoday.com

Here's why people aren't buying EVs in spite of price cuts and tax breaks.

Electric vehicle inventory continues to pile up despite generous tax breaks, price cuts and more selection. Here's why Americans won't charge in.
www.usatoday.com
www.forbes.com

EV Sales Pace Is Running Short Of Power Going Into 2024

EV sales in the U.S. may have hit a new milestone this year but a new study shows momentum is running low on power and may be giving way to a "Goldilocks" option.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
money.com

EV Sales Are in a Slump — Why Aren’t More Car Buyers Going Electric?

Sales of electric cars are underperforming, even with price cuts and $7,500 tax credits.
money.com money.com
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I skimmed through them. They all seem like click-bait and overreacting to Ford and GM pulling back on EVs, when they barely got started. If you read my link above, EV sales grew globally by 31% last year.
 
2 steps down in battery prices and 1 step up in energy density means Tesla is that much closer to a $25k Model 2. Teslas lithium processing facility comes online in just a few months and everyone is switch to NACS in the next year. Tesla will continue to build their lead on everyone else.
 
watchdoc said:
2 steps down in battery prices and 1 step up in energy density means Tesla is that much closer to a $25k Model 2. Teslas lithium processing facility comes online in just a few months and everyone is switch to NACS in the next year. Tesla will continue to build their lead on everyone else.
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Superchargers are going to be a hot mess in terms of queues waiting when everyone is trying to get a fast reliable charge.
 
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