Delmar
Solar Addict
Phones do use the satellites for positioning, however also use the cell towers for the mapping data. Requires a cell signal unless you downloaded the map prior to your trip.
4 X class solar flares to impact this weekend.
- Thread starter JLD
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wpns
Solar Joules are catch and release
My grid is only about 80KM in maximum dimension, but it’s unreliable and dirty enough that I can’t wait to commission my batteries and get completely off-grid.
wpns
Solar Joules are catch and release
Well, that’s not scary or anything!
Delmar
Solar Addict
I have been a travelling salesman dating back well before GPS was commercially available. Had my trusty 160-page atlas by my side for navigating. Oddly was produced by Garmin.
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**generators
I fixed that for you.
Not utilities, generators push MW and get paid for it, they don’t get paid for maintenance not winter/storm hardening. Utilities were just the bullseye when people were without power and people died.
Although more carrots are being created for those generators to be there when absolutely needed.
Quattrohead
Solar Wizard
To be 100% accurate seeing as that's what you're getting into, they use GPS signals, cell tower signals/data and even Bluetooth. The Bluetooth one I find too creepy.
Quattrohead
Solar Wizard
You do realize Garmin were producing paper maps way before electronic GPS units and software
Delorm was where it was at. Lot of time exporting old logging roads on Map 19.You do realize Garmin were producing paper maps way before electronic GPS units and software
Tell me you grew up in Maine without telling me you grew up in Maine
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Checkthisout
Solar Wizard
- Joined
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What are these protection systems in place for the grid that prevent the DC current induced in the lines magnetically saturating grid transformers turning them into resistive heaters so if the power is not cut it burns them out (not with a huge current either, so you can't prevent it with your normal surge protection etc)?
I heard this is one of the key modes of permanent grid damage. Also as demonstrated this weekend we're not talking about a CME in a same way as let's say a lightning strike. Few milliseconds and it's done. No, it can go on for days, perhaps weeks if waves of plasma keep coming. This means multiple hits, some smaller, some larger. In a way grids that stay on(or are quickly reeestablished) are much more in danger. Also, how do you detect minor damage in transformers without visiting each and every one? Then you switch on the power and they start failing. How do you replace, let's say optimistically 10% of all your grid transformers quickly? What if this is global?
Then you look at all the supply chain issues. Would China allow export of these transformers if they needed them? Would Kongo establish huge export tax on copper? How long would it take? Weeks, months, years? And within these years without power would we maintain the security stance required to accomplish rebuilding it?
I'm told there are solutions to protect these transformers, but it costs money and you can't do it remotely. You'd need people visit and install equipment on every single transformer. It is possible to build them in a way that makes them less susceptible. We're not doing that either. Don't ask me how exactly I'm not an expert, but people I trust made me believe the above is true.
Regarding the probability of Carrington style events and more, people that watch Sun's activity (spots, flare frequency etc) are pretty concerned the probability is very much not in our favor. People who watch Sun's activity claim it has been increasing a lot more than what is expected from just a maximum in an 11 year cycle. The effects are visible on all planets where we have probes. Huge storms that were thought to be stable for centuries changing direction on Uranus is just one. Climate change on Mars (wonder why that one doesn't get the publicity) etc.
Also,what is it that protects the Earth (and other planets) from solar plasma? Our magnetic field. And the question we should be asking is, is that thing stable? The answer sadly is nope!
It diminishes greatly and fluctuates rapidly during so called magnetic pole shifts(or reversals). How often do these happen? Every 6k years ago. And when was the last one? 6k years ago. And before? 12k yes ago, before 18k yes ago and so on. We are seeing much more effect on Earth from relatively minor solar stuff now than we did in the last solar cycle.
You can take the above or leave it. Don't ask me for research paper links for all the claims. I don't have the time to search for them. You can consider it scaremongering or you can do your own research. As I said, people I trust in the field say these things and they seem very credible to me.
The other question is, let's consider two positions. One, it is all bullshit and we're fine. In such case we can just do nothing and if we prepare there is extra monetary cost to bear. If it's not bullshit there is a question how bad of a crisis can it be? Can you survive a month without power, with store shelves empty, with civil unrest etc? How about a year?
There are levels of preparedness. If a huge one hits and lightning bolts shoot between the front and back case of your newest phone while you're holding it in you hand most of us are dead anyway, but what if it's a lot smaller? Let's say "just" the grid goes down for years which causes an initial period of unrest/lack of supply for only few weeks/months at worst. Would you not want to be prepared for it just in case?
Here are Amazon links for my suggested items:(I'm only joking)
I know how it sounds. Sometimes people ask me, how do you separate bullshit from truth online? And I tell them, there is no shortcut, you have to do your own research if you want to be certain.
Patriot Power Generator has you covered.
Lets you charge cell phone and run TV in event of extended total grid outage.
Delmar
Solar Addict
I live near the Lewis Creek power station in Texas. During the Great Houston freeze they just commissioned a brandy new combined-cycle natural gas power plant. Naturally it was not freeze protected and it went down.
Thankfully they built it next to the old plant that was not demolished. That old plant was freeze protected and they quickly restarted it, but had to load share for all the other plants that froze. So I had daily 10-12 hour rolling blackouts. This is what I prepared my self-propelled power station to handle.
EDIT: power plants not preparing for a freeze makes bad economic sense. Look at all the lost revenue from not providing billable power. Must be the woke mind virus that thinks we are in global warming and it will never be cold again.
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ksmithaz1
Solar / EV Junkie
Meh, satellites, How much "increased drag" for something floating around in space? Not buying this is going to do anything significant to the devices unless it just fries it. The thing is the event is significant because a magnetic pulse is inducing a current on the wires. If you have 5 miles of wire for it to brush across that's one thing. If you have 1cm of wire not so much. I doubt you'd get much stringing 10 feet of wire in your garage. Transformers things with windings maybe blow a fuse or something.
You have a reference on the drag thing?
wpns
Solar Joules are catch and release
My Good Friend Google has lots of results for atmospheric drag. It’s definitely a thing, not just theoretical:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023SW003716
ksmithaz1
Solar / EV Junkie
To the point of this article, this affected LEO satellites that were being launched, failing to get to the right spot. I poked around, wondering about real effects. Starlink could be screwed.
ksmithaz1
Solar / EV Junkie
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag ::
"The drag force on satellites increases during times when the Sun is active. When the Sun adds extra energy the atmosphere the low density layers of air at LEO altitudes rise and are replaced by higher density layers that were previously at lower altitudes. As a result, the spacecraft now flies through the higher density layer and experiences a stronger drag force. When the Sun is quiet, satellites in LEO have to boost their orbits about four times per year to make up for atmospheric drag. When solar activity is at its greatest over the 11-year solar cycle, satellites may have to be maneuvered every 2-3 weeks to maintain their orbit [1]."
I would grant you this is significant, but it's not like a big magnetic event is going to knock all the LEO's down. Might shorten life expectancy because of an inability to move but they currently already may have to move 20+ times/year. It's like some of the stuff on the ground, "It's going to knock out the grid", because we are too inept to drive/travel over and reset a breaker? I remember the launch/loss incident, I'm sure numerous changes have been implemented to mitigate similar events it in the future.
Then again after experiencing all the elevators plummeting to the basements of all the sky-rises during Y2K on 1/1/2000@00:00:00 who knows?
Back in the telegraph days, you would have been lucky if anything was actually fused and grounded to start with.
"The drag force on satellites increases during times when the Sun is active. When the Sun adds extra energy the atmosphere the low density layers of air at LEO altitudes rise and are replaced by higher density layers that were previously at lower altitudes. As a result, the spacecraft now flies through the higher density layer and experiences a stronger drag force. When the Sun is quiet, satellites in LEO have to boost their orbits about four times per year to make up for atmospheric drag. When solar activity is at its greatest over the 11-year solar cycle, satellites may have to be maneuvered every 2-3 weeks to maintain their orbit [1]."
I would grant you this is significant, but it's not like a big magnetic event is going to knock all the LEO's down. Might shorten life expectancy because of an inability to move but they currently already may have to move 20+ times/year. It's like some of the stuff on the ground, "It's going to knock out the grid", because we are too inept to drive/travel over and reset a breaker? I remember the launch/loss incident, I'm sure numerous changes have been implemented to mitigate similar events it in the future.
Then again after experiencing all the elevators plummeting to the basements of all the sky-rises during Y2K on 1/1/2000@00:00:00 who knows?
Back in the telegraph days, you would have been lucky if anything was actually fused and grounded to start with.
robby
Photon Vampire
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It's way more complicated than what your going to be able to get from a single article.
The Atmospheric expansion happens so fast and during that time period it might be impossible to Calculate and send manual commands to the Satellite. Almost all Satellites operate based on Manual commands from ground control.
Anyway the speed of the change and the impact are far greater than you might be thinking. That was why those 40 Starlink satellites trying to get up to a higher altitude just fell out of space with a minor CME.
If we had a truly C-Event proportional CME from an X8.5 Flare hit the Earth it could literally send a few thousand Starlink satellites crashing back to Earth.
I say that because a Typical LEO satellite is up at just over a 1000 miles but a Starlink satellite is only about 350 miles up!
Starlink Satellites are already on the bleeding edge when dealing with higher density space, so any significant increase in resistance would create a huge loss in speed that would most certainly send them into an even lower altitude and even denser area of space. It would then take an exponential amount of fuel to recover them. That is assuming that Ground control can maintain contact with them when the CME is hitting.
They could probably pull this off but the loss of operational life would be significant.
Ask yourself, has Elon Musk ever come off to you as a guy that plans or spends money on worst case event scenarios? His whole life is based on Gambling that he will be dealt four Aces.
Do I think that Starlink Satellites along with hundreds of LEO commercial Sats have proper systems in place for this and also adequate shielding protection against an event that has not happened in the last 130 years? Nope! The event is just too rare to justify the expense.
Shortened life expectancy is the Best outcome and even then you're talking about Billions of dollars worth of lost revenue across the entire fleet of LEO satellites.
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ksmithaz1
Solar / EV Junkie
Two ways to do it. Assume it's going to puke, and have the ability to re-launch an adequate number of replacements (make them disposable) or spend a gazillion on drastically more robust hardware that may weather the storm. . . I guess we shall see.
robby
Photon Vampire
- Joined
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- 4,222
I think they will always choose the cheaper option. The odds don't justify the extra expense.
Aridom82
Learning addict
Are we still on high danger of getting hit? How long until the sun calms down a bit?
wpns
Solar Joules are catch and release
Nobody knows, and predictions aren’t useful. We get a few days warning of CMEs heading our way, but the science is still in its infancy.
Well, this weekend and maybe Monday was a time a couple CMEs were arriving(6 if I remember correctly) and there was increased probability of "bad stuff". You can think of these CMEs like gusts of wind. Same wind speed can cause different damage depending on how quickly it switches direction. Also these travel at different speeds, overtake one another and there is a possibility of few merging.
For example let's say few merged and hit hard at the same time magnetic field was experiencing some "flutter". That could potentially be bad (or not, depending on which study you read).
People can laugh, but my elderly relatives had enough food stocked up to last a couple of weeks at the very least.
Then, after this weekend, from Nov 2024 to March 2025 is the peak of the current solar cycle. It is that time every 22 years the sun is most like to throw a big one. It can go at any direction missing the Earth completely or not.
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