Lithium Prices Plummet As Global Supply Concerns Diminish

[sun walker]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has plunged from $84,500 per metric ton to $42,500, or about a 50% decline, according to Bloomberg data."

This surplus is expected to last for years, hopefully that will lead to a big drop in battery prices.

 

[JWLV]

Might this be related to the Biden administration's EV car battery credit that stipulates that it must be mined by the US? And therefore creating a surplus of Chinese mined lithium?

Whatever the case, I am already seeing LiFePo4 batteries coming way down in price compared to a year ago.

Magic 8 ball says, "I see another rack of Ruixu batteries in your future." ?

 

[hugemoth]

The world's largest lithium deposit so far discovered is on the Oregon/Nevada border. Wonder if that has something to do with the price drop?

New evidence suggests McDermitt Caldera may be among the largest known lithium reserves in the world

A trio of volcanologists and geologists from Lithium Americas Corporation, GNS Science, and Oregon State University reports evidence that the McDermitt Caldera, on the Nevada/Oregon, border, may host some of the largest known deposits of lithium on Earth. In their project, reported in the...

phys.org

 

[timselectric]

I don't ask why.
I just buy, buy, buy.

 

[JJJJ]

I don't ask why.
I just buy, buy, buy.

LOL. Know how you feel. Enjoy excuses to pick up another pack...

 

[sun walker]

I think lithium is in abundance, most large counties seem to have deposits, but there's been a bit of a bottle neck with the ev transition, I guess batteries like the panels have, will drop in cost over time.

https://www.rt.com/india/587913-india-needs-electric-vehicles/.....This is a dumb article, criticizing ev's cause India is addicted to coal.

"lithium deposits were discovered in Jammu & Kashmir. Initial estimates by the Geological Survey of India (GSI) suggest a reserve of 5.9 billion tonnes of lithium,"

 

[Skypower]

I can’t think of a better way to squash the emerging competition than dropping prices on a market that you control. Then swoop in on the desperate competition and buy it cheap. Once done, raise prices again. Control the resources, control the world.

 

[kommando]

The ones that will suffer are the companies that hedged forward when the price was close to the peak, they cannot drop their prices and still be profitable as their input prices are fixed until the hedge is completed. If their cash reserves are low they will not survive.

 

[k490]

Fear of the Sodium-ion battery maybe although I have only seen 18650 for sale so far. If these start to sell cheaper no one wants to get stuck with the more expensive lithium-based battery they can't sell.

 

[Dave911]

42,500

$42,500 per metric ton can't be considered to be cheap! Cheaper, ok, but not close to cheap.

Meanwhile packaged 12 V, 100 AH batteries are still dropping in cost.

I'm now seeing about $170 on the low end for a 100 AH 12 volt packaged battery. These are dropping faster in price than I predicted.

I was thinking they would be $150 by June of next year. But they are getting close to that now!

 

[sun walker]

$42,500 per metric ton can't be considered to be cheap! Cheaper, ok, but not close to cheap.

Meanwhile packaged 12 V, 100 AH batteries are still dropping in cost.

I'm now seeing about $170 on the low end for a 100 AH 12 volt packaged battery. These are dropping faster in price than I predicted.

I was thinking they would be $150 by June of next year. But they are getting close to that now!

do you know what brand that is?

 

[Dave911]

Here are a few of the cheapest ones on Amazon. They are making it harder and harder to sort effectively by price.
If you can say the names of some of these brands I think you win a prize! I just noticed the Lisuateli battery has low temp protection.

 

[chrisski]

Only reason prices continue to drop is other places in the world continue to produce more lithium at cheaper costs to the company, allowing so much to be produced, that prices can drop and profits be made.

I don't think prices lithium prices have dropped at all in response to anything the US government has done. More like in spite of poor policies that should cause prices to skyrocket, lithium prices drop. America does not want to mine Lithium. It's like having a sewage plant open in the lot next door. We recognize we need it, but it ain't going to be done here.

The world's largest lithium deposit so far discovered is on the Oregon/Nevada border. Wonder if that has something to do with the price drop?

New evidence suggests McDermitt Caldera may be among the largest known lithium reserves in the world

A trio of volcanologists and geologists from Lithium Americas Corporation, GNS Science, and Oregon State University reports evidence that the McDermitt Caldera, on the Nevada/Oregon, border, may host some of the largest known deposits of lithium on Earth. In their project, reported in the...

phys.org

Might this be related to the Biden administration's EV car battery credit that stipulates that it must be mined by the US?

There is only one lithium mine opened in the US, the " Albemarle Lithium production facility in Silver Peak, Nevada."

IMO, no lithium mine will open in the US anytime soon. This mine opened in the 1960s and any permits to begin production on new sites have been complete failures.

There is however money available for research. Berkshire Hathway was awarded a 14.9 million dollar research grant, but however two weeks into the project, the government pulled the money when Berkshire Hathway changed the terms of the agreement.

I'm sure government sponsored research grants will continue to flow, and that will give us hope.

The tax credit is not necessarily lithium in the batteries, but :

• 50% of the value of battery components must be produced or manufactured in North America in fiscal year 2023, with the minimum percentage increasing annually.
• 40% of the value of critical minerals used for the vehicle must be extracted, processed, and/or recycled domestically or in a country the U.S. has a free trade agreement with, with the minimum percentage increasing annually. EV manufacturing requires a range of minerals, including cobalt, copper, nickel, graphite, and lithium.

The US has a free trade agreement with these countries.

• Australia
• Bahrain
• Canada
• Chile
• Colombia
• Costa Rica
• Dominican Republic
• El Salvador
• Guatemala
• Honduras
• Israel
• Jordan
• Korea
• Mexico
• Morocco
• Nicaragua
• Oman
• Panama
• Peru
• Singapore
• USMCA

I don't think it limits who can own the mine. China has a huge hand in mineral extraction throughout the world.

 

[Dave911]

Here are a few of the cheapest ones on Amazon. They are making it harder and harder to sort effectively by price.
If you can say the names of some of these brands I think you win a prize! I just noticed the Lisuateli battery has low temp protection.

View attachment 179656

Some of these have shipping charges which are up to $40 or so. I think the Moseworth is 189 with free shipping. Not shown here. I'm happy with the one I have. I also have a bunch of Redodo's which are ok but they didn't have low temp protection until just recently. When is really dumb since they are selling into North America.
If you find a battery you like, make sure to check if they are being sold on Ebay as well. Oftentimes they are cheaper through Ebay.

 

[k490]

Some of these have shipping charges which are up to $40 or so. I think the Moseworth is 189 with free shipping. Not shown here. I'm happy with the one I have. I also have a bunch of Redodo's which are ok but they didn't have low temp protection until just recently. When is really dumb since they are selling into North America.
If you find a battery you like, make sure to check if they are being sold on Ebay as well. Oftentimes they are cheaper through Ebay.

Problem also is long shipping time which means there is no warranty without prime at least you get 30 days to return it if it's DOA. Unless you're okay with risking $200 with tax.

 

[Dave911]

Problem also is long shipping time which means there is no warranty without prime at least you get 30 days to return it if it's DOA. Unless you're okay with risking $200 with tax.

The few I looked at said they would be at my door in 7 days or so and the one says its returnable until the end of January.

I've bought Redodo batteries off Ebay with zero issues.

I just saw this: $168 with free shipping, not prime. There may be others out there today. This won't do it for me, I need low temp protection.
But it says 5 years after sales support - whatever that means. It says its IP65.

This has been reviewed here before.

DJLBERMPW, 12V 100AH LiFePO4: $259.00 + free shiping on Amazon ($0.196 per Wh) **Now $168**

Wow.. 209$. Unfortunately no low temp protection at all.

diysolarforum.com

Battleborn must be throwing up about now.

This was the price yesterday. It has since gone back up but now we know they can sell these for $167 or lower.

 

[Dave911]

Problem also is long shipping time which means there is no warranty without prime at least you get 30 days to return it if it's DOA. Unless you're okay with risking $200 with tax.

The few I looked at said they would be at my door in 7 days or so and the one says its returnable until the end of January.

I've bought Redodo batteries off Ebay with zero issues.

I just saw this: $168 with free shipping, not prime. There may be others out there today. This won't do it for me, I need low temp protection.
But it says 5 years after sales support - whatever that means. It says its IP65.

This has been reviewed here before.

DJLBERMPW, 12V 100AH LiFePO4: $259.00 + free shiping on Amazon ($0.196 per Wh) **Now $168**

Wow.. 209$. Unfortunately no low temp protection at all.

diysolarforum.com

Battleborn must be throwing up about now.



View attachment 179984

 

[Dave911]

This battery was also 167.99, the exact same price as the one above.
This one says it has low temp protection! Of course I forgot to order it before the price jumped back up. Oh well.
So now we know they can sell a battery with low temp protection for $167.99 as well. If you read the reviews both of these batteries seem to be good.
These cases appear to be identical to the Redodo batteries.
I'm going to wait to buy more batteries until at least spring of 2024. I suspect we will see $150 soon.
Battleborn must be looking for high bridges to jump from right now. Their market is pretty much dead except for the folks that have way to much money and need to give it to someone. I don't know anyone like that. I don't know where Jeff Bezos buys his 100 AH batteries from but I doubt it is Battleborn! Ha ha..

 

[Alkaline]

Ya'll need to talk with people that have had these cheapies for a year or two, I know 2 people I go fishing with that had Zooms (now redodo) that can not charge past 13.1 volts, more than likely unbalanced cells and hits high voltage cut-off. In a year or two they are going to need to be opened up and manually balanced.

 

[k490]

Ya'll need to talk with people that have had these cheapies for a year or two, I know 2 people I go fishing with that had Zooms (now redodo) that can not charge past 13.1 volts, more than likely unbalanced cells and hits high voltage cut-off. In a year or two they are going to need to be opened up and manually balanced.

I believe the Redodo BMS will allow charging below freezing unless you get the low temp, or heated version wonder how many damaged their batteries not realizing that. You have to manually shut down the charging or look for a charge controller has that function EPERVER has it but you can't adjust it fixed at 0C. Even their AIO had low max MPPT inputs around 250 limited how many panels you could run in series.