New Tariffs in the States

The usual play is legislate rules and regs so companies our politicians have "investments" in will turn a high profit.

Tariffs are a great thing for politicians, it fills government coffers and with the insider information, benefits the politicians bank account.

How come it hasn't occurred until now? Politicians have to get positioned to profit, companies need to steal intellectual property on how to make the product and streamline it for mass production and there has to be demand created. That takes time. Plus, the brain washing has to occur where the public "wants" the rules, regs and tariffs.

What is a "large battery"

That's what I want to know.

SparkyJJO said:

What is a "large battery"

That's what I want to know.

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Anything over "D" size?

One thing I thought after hearing that they were going to place huge tariffs on imported electrical cars from China, which they say sell for ~$14 thousand over there, was why? I could afford a car in that price range and I imagine a lot of other folks could more easily afford it also. They said it was necessary to save our Auto industry who only seems to want to sell electric vehicles to rich people. Or at least those that can help pay for it with huge tax subsidies ordinary folks have no access to.

If Detroit can not make cars and trucks that ordinary people can afford they have forgotten Henry Fords legacy.

I heard the battery packs for some of these BEVs cost upwards of $20k by themselves. If that's true, I can't imagine an entire car for $14k with any sort of real range.

Cars cost too much these days in part because of all the mandatory radars and specialized cameras and stuff. Thousands of dollars in those radars and things. "Safety." Maybe, or how about nanny systems that aid lazy and distracted driving.

I like my 99. It has an airbag, and ABS. That's about it. It won't whine at you or try to take over if a squirrel runs out in front, and will happily let you drive into a ditch (or a wall) if you're not paying attention. Basically, it requires you to actually *gasp* pay attention while you drive! What a novel concept!

ETA:
We have a 2015 minivan and it has a "mini nanny" - beeps when it thinks we might be at risk of running into something, and beeps if if thinks we're crossing over lanes without signaling or whatever. It won't take over the brakes, or do any corrections, just yells at you. Out of the couple dozen or so times the forward collision warning has screamed, only one maybe two times at most did it seem legit. Most of the time it goes off, there's just glare from oncoming traffic, or, heck, I don't know what it thinks is going on but there isn't anything there. If that camera ever breaks I'll just tolerate the warning light on the dash.

SparkyJJO said:

I heard the battery packs for some of these BEVs cost upwards of $20k by themselves. If that's true, I can't imagine an entire car for $14k with any sort of real range.

Cars cost too much these days in part because of all the mandatory radars and specialized cameras and stuff. Thousands of dollars in those radars and things. "Safety." Maybe, or how about nanny systems that aid lazy and distracted driving.

I like my 99. It has an airbag, and ABS. That's about it. It won't whine at you or try to take over if a squirrel runs out in front, and will happily let you drive into a ditch (or a wall) if you're not paying attention. Basically, it requires you to actually *gasp* pay attention while you drive! What a novel concept!

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There are lots of small electric cars in China ... small cars with small battery packs.

Madcodger said:

We could both encourage US production AND encourage the shift to cleaner energy, by subsidizing OUR production.

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Or having tax rebates for the above. None of this stuff has a single solution, and everything’s chaotic enough that the unintended consequences push the results even further from what the originators (said they) wanted. We’re going to have tariffs and rebates and incentives and job creation and boondoggles all simultaneously. And so it goes.

I know at least QCells is getting closer to making solar panels 100% from material sourced from within North America and even when they have to import it is coming from South Korea. But I've not heard of anyone close to making EV or LiFePO4 batteries in the USA from USA (or "friendly country") sourced material?

Mattb4 said:

If Detroit can not make cars and trucks that ordinary people can afford they have forgotten Henry Fords legacy.

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No-one can because it’s not that easy balancing all the factors (range, power, size, mass, cost), and the US consumer has proven over and over again that ’size matters’, and it’s the Suburban Assault Vehicles that sell, while the $25K EVs are either never produced (looking at you, Tesla) or sit on the lot awaiting a fire sale.

SparkyJJO said:

mini nanny

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Our Kona has a more agressive Nanny, but it’s saved my bacon in FL a couple of times as parking lot race cars cut across my stern as I’m backing out of a spot. But that’s FL, I used to think MA drivers were the worst, then I moved to FL.

The tariff rate on lithium-ion EV batteries will increase from 7.5%% to 25% in 2024, while the tariff rate on lithium-ion non-EV batteries will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2026. The tariff rate on battery parts will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2024.

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The tariff rate on solar cells (whether or not assembled into modules) will increase from 25% to 50% in 2024.

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from here.

AntronX said:

from here.

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Remains to be seen if the traditional prismatic cells are considered "non EV" as they can be assembled into an EV battery.

Bop said:

You REALLY need to vet your sources more carefully- I didn't even need to watch it to know immediately that was a video by a utuber named Sepentza- a notorious antiChina (and rabid anti EV) utuber with a long history of 'distorting the truth' aka lying... (he is a far rightwing supporter, born in South Africa, and has a VERY dubious past indeed)

Responsible for the 'ghost cities' nonsense, and also literally the starter of the 'fields of abandoned EVs left to rot' nonsense... (and the spread of the 'EVs catch fire' garbage against BYD- he seems to have a particular hatred of BYD for some reason)

BYD's blade batteries are indeed safe (and yes, Tesla does indeed use them in both the EU made Model 3, and also now the Chinese manufactured Model 3 as well)- BYD manufacture their own batteries, and have done since the first release of the E6, back in 2009... they manufacture more GWh of batteries per year than Tesla, and are one of the biggest manufacturers in the world...

They also outsell Tesla worldwide- and have been selling cars since 2009, and trucks and buses since 2012 (actual trucks- not US 'utes')- here in Australia BYD outsells Tesla (indeed my next car is going to be a Atto 3, later this year), NSW has been using their buses (nicknamed 'ElectricBlu) since 2016, and EV buses now make up almost a third of the inner city fleet in Sydney
2009 E6 was first released
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2012, first BYD commercial vehicles went on sale
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2016 Australia bought the first 6 BYD electric buses used in Australia (they bought another 40 in 2017, and by 2023, there were over 250 of them running around Sydney, with almost the entire diesel fleet being replaced by electric buses by 2028...)
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View attachment 214851
In 2020, BYD released a shot of their 100th electric 'semi' sold in the US...
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Like I said, I am looking at getting the Atto 3 later this year, a mid sized 'SUV', with a 450km range per charge (20% to 80% in under half an hour), has a 1200kg towing capacity, and is in Australia, $20000 cheaper for the LR version than the cheapest Tesla 3...
View attachment 214853
BYD do actually know what they are doing....

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Having lived in east Asia for 15 years and visited China multiple times, I find them both completely credible.

Right wing? Yes, cause anything right of Mao is now “far right wing.”

Rabid anti EV? Rabid anti Byd? lol. Probably well less than 1% of his content mentions either one and then it’s part of the over all “tofu dreg” construction and products discussion.

Your political agenda is coloring your perception.

He (and his buddy) obviously LOVES the country of China. It’s the PRC and the corrupted tofu dreg business practices that he has problems with. They aren’t one in the same.

Zwy said:

The usual play is legislate rules and regs so companies our politicians have "investments" in will turn a high profit.

Tariffs are a great thing for politicians, it fills government coffers and with the insider information, benefits the politicians bank account.

How come it hasn't occurred until now? Politicians have to get positioned to profit, companies need to steal intellectual property on how to make the product and streamline it for mass production and there has to be demand created. That takes time. Plus, the brain washing has to occur where the public "wants" the rules, regs and tariffs.

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"How come it hasn't occurred until now?"

Election year.

Brucey said:

Remains to be seen if the traditional prismatic cells are considered "non EV" as they can be assembled into an EV battery .

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If they are meant to be used for storage then it can be argued they are non EV. This means we got until 2026 to stock up on LFP cells before we get hit with ~$13/cell tariff (for 300Ah cell).

Bop said:

They also outsell Tesla worldwide

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To make a fair apples-to-apples comparison though, you have to restrict yourself to BEV's. In that comparison, BYD has outsold Tesla for exactly one quarter since 2020. But it *IS* a tough fight! Elon stated long ago that Tesla's only real competition was China. That has held true.

BYD is a behemoth, and I noted their large E-Bus sales a few years ago. It is good to spread the EV tech and good for large city particulate pollution levels. But now the next big race is autonomy, where it seems Tesla has quite a moat. I expect their main competition here will also come from China, eventually...

AntronX said:

from here.

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"
Semiconductors

The tariff rate on semiconductors will increase from 25% to 50% by 2025.

China’s policies in the legacy semiconductor sector have led to growing market share and rapid capacity expansion that risks driving out investment by market-driven firms. Over the next three to five years, China is expected to account for almost half of all new capacity coming online to manufacture certain legacy semiconductor wafers. During the pandemic, disruptions to the supply chain, including legacy chips, led to price spikes in a wide variety of products, including automobiles, consumer appliances, and medical devices, underscoring the risks of overreliance on a few markets.
"

It says "Legacy", i.e. low value ICs that no one else was willing to make any more.
During the pandemic, there was a spike in prices. Therefore, the tariff on top of those prices will be increased even further.

"Through the CHIPS and Science Act, President Biden is making a nearly $53 billion investment in American semiconductor manufacturing capacity, research, innovation, and workforce. This will help counteract decades of disinvestment and offshoring that has reduced the United States’ capacity to manufacture semiconductors domestically. The CHIPS and Science Act includes $39 billion in direct incentives to build, modernize, and expand semiconductor manufacturing fabrication facilities as well as a 25% investment tax credit for semiconductor companies. Raising the tariff rate on semiconductors is an important initial step to promote the sustainability of these investments."

None of those new fabs will make legacy chips. Tariffs on legacy chips won't push business to the new fabs. Tariffs on the more advanced chips won't mean advanced chips made in the US instead of China, either, because China is denied access to the most advanced IC fab equipment. Tariffs on somewhat advanced chips from China could affect the decision to use more advanced, highly integrated chips from those US fabs.

The advanced fabs utilize technology such as extreme UV, 13 nm wavelength light used to print 7nm, even 3nm geometries. That is, well below wavelength, where everything is just interference patterns. Very high density digital, for computation, graphics, AI.

What is of interest to us in alternative energy and EVs is power electronics, higher voltage/current and more efficient transistors. Things like silicon carbide, gallium nitride, etc., not sure where those are being developed and fabricated. The nm-scale chips have nothing to do with that, maybe for the smarts added to cars but not the basic functionality.

SparkyJJO said:

I heard the battery packs for some of these BEVs cost upwards of $20k by themselves. If that's true, I can't imagine an entire car for $14k with any sort of real range.

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Price tag can be anything (here ~60K for Tesla ~100kWh batt) but production cost is around 50$/kWh so 14K cars are more than possible. It's still huge percentage of a car total production cost though.

"The nm-scale chips have nothing to do with that, maybe for the smarts added to cars but not the basic functionality."

Don't forget the microcontrollers of various flavors the make AIO's and MPPT CC's work.

And talk to the Chinese Cloud alla time if you don't sandbox them...

Not as esoteric as the cutting-edge nm process stuff, but necessary nonetheless. I guess they could be "mid-range" on the scale - not as "legacy" as a NE555, not as bleeding edge as the current Intel I whatever-iteration-they-are-at.

v_green57 said:

"How come it hasn't occurred until now?"

Election year.

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Tariffs increase the costs= inflation

No politician will increase tariffs in an election year unless it fills their pocket and they plan on leaving office.

Zwy said:

Tariffs increase the costs= inflation

No politician will increase tariffs in an election year unless it fills their pocket and they plan on leaving office.

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It’s about nudging the union and blue collar vote in key swing states. Populism was jettisoned by that particular side almost completely and folks are now more aware of it.