Prices dropping, will this continue?

[Dave911]

well thats pretty simple, it means we can avoid buying these new batteries and wait another 3-4k cycles and see whats new then.

You know that 3-4k cycles is another 8-10 years. Thats quite a long time. Not sure how old you are, but when I reroof in 18 years, I wont care if the shingles have a 30 or 50 year warranty. It simply wont matter.

Regarding payback; If I didnt think I could get full payback in less than 5 years, I wouldn't bother with solar.

 

[DIYrich]

I will not be surprised to see a far better battery chemistry on the market within five years.

Solar and battery tax credit is currently through 2033. I say buy batteries now, and replace in 2033 if the credit is not extended.

 

[Daddy Tanuki]

You know that 3-4k cycles is another 8-10 years. Thats quite a long time. Not sure how old you are, but when I reroof in 18 years, I wont care if the shingles have a 30 or 50 year warranty. It simply wont matter.

Regarding payback; If I didnt think I could get full payback in less than 5 years, I wouldn't bother with solar.

I think you miss my point, it’s why bother to spend money when you have that many cycles left, not to mention the OP of that post was saying about how something newer and better would come out. My answer of course so weight till you have burned through a few more cycles do not buy tomorrows tech, when what you got will carry you through till next months newest tech. That or tomorrows latest and greatest will drop in price during that interim

 

[Hedges]

Solar and battery tax credit is currently through 2033. I say buy batteries now, and replace in 2033 if the credit is not extended.

That should be 2/3 of the way through anticipated cycle life.
A PowerPro would have cost you $0.075/kWh at that point.
(Assuming one 100% cycle per day.)

 

[Dave911]

I think you miss my point, it’s why bother to spend money when you have that many cycles left, not to mention the OP of that post was saying about how something newer and better would come out. My answer of course so weight till you have burned through a few more cycles do not buy tomorrows tech, when what you got will carry you through till next months newest tech. That or tomorrows latest and greatest will drop in price during that interim

My point is that you cant plan out 20+ years with any kind of certainty. A couple years ago I had to make a decision regarding an eye surgery. The retinal eye surgery was invasive and risky.
As part of my decision making, I asked my doctor if this surgery would allow my eye to function for 30+ years. He said, I have no idea! All I know is that of we dont do this your left eye will stop functioning. Not sure how long you will live or if you will have other health issues.
I was pretty shocked, that after all of his training, his extremely successful practice, he couldnt estimate or even guess how long my eye should function, but life is uncertain. Very uncertain.
You might not get 8 years out of your batteries.
Whats the replacement warranty? Thats really the only thing that could be certain, if they are still in business, and you still care ( you're alive and well).

 

[Daddy Tanuki]

My point is that you cant plan out 20+ years with any kind of certainty. A couple years ago I had to make a decision regarding an eye surgery. The retinal eye surgery was invasive and risky.
As part of my decision making, I asked my doctor if this surgery would allow my eye to function for 30+ years. He said, I have no idea! All I know is that of we dont do this your left eye will stop functioning. Not sure how long you will live or if you will have other health issues.
I was pretty shocked, that after all of his training, his extremely successful practice, he couldnt estimate or even guess how long my eye should function, but life is uncertain. Very uncertain.
You might not get 8 years out of your batteries.
Whats the replacement warranty? Thats really the only thing that could be certain, if they are still in business, and you still care ( you're alive and well).

Yep and that’s why I paid extra for cells from a company that’s been around for more than twenty years. Winston’s cost but have a proven track record

 

[Jack1985]

which brand of 280 cells? Different brand different quality and prices.

A year ago, I purchased my first 32 304ah cells for over $5k, then added 16 more a few months later at not much less per cell.
Now, I can get 48 of the 280ah cells, which are supposed to be rated as high as the 304ah, delivered for $3674? That's under $77 a cell.

 

[Jack1985]

I'd be at just around $2000 delivered for 16 Eve mb31 314Ah from 18650batterystore. Non inverter jk 200A BMS was about $100.

prices by air?

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[Dave911]

Yep and that’s why I paid extra for cells from a company that’s been around for more than twenty years. Winston’s cost but have a proven track record

But their warranty is not great. I think its two years?
I have purchased a number of Redodo 12 volt, 100ah batteries and they have a 5 year warranty.
For the price Winston charges they should have a much better warranty.

 

[Daddy Tanuki]

But their warranty is not great. I think its two years?
I have purchased a number of Redodo 12 volt, 100ah batteries and they have a 5 year warranty.
For the price Winston charges they should have a much better warranty.

To people who are
Home brewing systems? of course the premade packs have longer warranties they are all assembled in a fashion the cell maker seems good enough. The question is how many of these companies will be around in two or three years? Can’t get a refund from an entity that melts away like the mist

 

[Tulex]

which brand of 280 cells? Different brand different quality and prices.

That ended up being incorrect, as they had the shipping wrong. But I was referring to Eve V3

 

[Jack1985]

That ended up being incorrect, as they had the shipping wrong. But I was referring to Eve V3

So finally you get 48 pcs EVE 280K V3 by $3674? EVE 280K V3 will have about 310Ah real capacity. 76.5usd per pcs is a good price.

 

[Dave911]

To people who are
Home brewing systems? of course the premade packs have longer warranties they are all assembled in a fashion the cell maker seems good enough. The question is how many of these companies will be around in two or three years? Can’t get a refund from an entity that melts away like the mist

You skipped over my point:
"For the price that Winston charges you should get more than a two year warranty." You cant get a refund after two years because thats the length of the warranty.

 

[Daddy Tanuki]

You skipped over my point:
"For the price that Winston charges you should get more than a two year warranty." You cant get a refund after two years because thats the length of the warranty.

Dave and you missed mine that or you are ignoring it, nobody warrants raw components for very long on a cash and carry basis for diy folks. Those battery packs are pre assembled so the makers of the cells (more likely the assemblers of the packs) have control over the components and overall system design… it’s not diy I. That sense

 

[Tulex]

The only places a warranty is worth anything is with established products from established companies. The cost of those products from these companies is elevated to the point that the risk of DIY is worth it. This is all really pointless though. If you have the money to pay for warrantied products, you have the money to replace your DIY. But then, I guess it's about the same as buying extended warranties. Do you want to pay up front for what might happen? Some people do, some don't.

 

[Daddy Tanuki]

The only places a warranty is worth anything is with established products from established companies. The cost of those products from these companies is elevated to the point that the risk of DIY is worth it. This is all l pointless though. If you have the money to pay for warrantied products, you have the money to replace your DIY. But then, I guess it's about the same as buying extended warranties. Do you want to pay up front for what might happen? Some people do, some don't.

Exactly.

 

[Dave911]

Dave and you missed mine that or you are ignoring it, nobody warrants raw components for very long on a cash and carry basis for diy folks. Those battery packs are pre assembled so the makers of the cells (more likely the assemblers of the packs) have control over the components and overall system design… it’s not diy I. That sense

Yeah, I see your point. But why did you pay 2x for your batteries? Thats my point. Do you expect the Winston's to last twice as long as Eve cells.
That seems very unlikely.

 

[Hedges]

Maybe the Winston's are twice as likely to last.

Yep and that’s why I paid extra for cells from a company that’s been around for more than twenty years. Winston’s cost but have a proven track record

Just like PV panels, as cells drop in price so other system components dominate cost, saving money has diminishing returns.

 

[Brucey]

Yeah, I see your point. But why did you pay 2x for your batteries? Thats my point. Do you expect the Winston's to last twice as long as Eve cells.
That seems very unlikely.

His Winston's are LiFeYPO4 (LYP), yttrium doped, so they can be charged in colder temps than regular LFP. Also nylon encased so less hassles with fragility than a thin skinned aluminum case. For Daddy living in a cave in Mt Fuji he doesn't have to worry about heating them (though I think he does).

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[Brucey]

So finally you get 48 pcs EVE 280K V3 by $3674? EVE 280K V3 will have about 310Ah real capacity. 76.5usd per pcs is a good price.

v3 should get much cheaper as mb30 comes into full availability.