Prices dropping, will this continue?

[Tulex]

A year ago, I purchased my first 32 304ah cells for over $5k, then added 16 more a few months later at not much less per cell.
Now, I can get 48 of the 280ah cells, which are supposed to be rated as high as the 304ah, delivered for $3674? That's under $77 a cell.

 

[OffGridForGood]

It is very difficult to know what will/may happen to supply and price of raw cells.
I took the averaging effect of buying a set of 16 cells at a time, twice per year -Spring and Fall each year.
I watched the cell prices generally drop with every purchase while I built out my ESS. Buying a set at a time over a period of a few years reduced my anxiety about paying and waiting for a single large order during times of world unrest, spread the cash outlay over time, supported the expansion in stages, and meant I only had one DIY pack at a time to balance and put together twice per year.
Having one more slot in my ESS it is tempting to buy "just one more set of cells" But honestly the ESS now spends most of its' time well above 60% SOC even during a few days of rain. I have other projects in mind that could also use cells, so I am part of the wait and see crowd now, looking for opportunities.
For anyone building up your ESS, I suggest following the market with a pack at a time as you can afford.

 

[Tulex]

Batteries prices are declining since Sep 2023. But since last month, most of the batteries prices are stable.
The material price of battery level lithium carbonate does not have much changed.
We have also brought down the price recently.
Brand new 2024 4 pcs Grade A EVE 280Ah cells with factory data - free ship to door is around 329usd in evcomponents.com.
EVE 280K - 61usd
EVE 230K - 47.5usd
EVE 105K - 33.9usd
EVE 50K - 23.9usd

Not understanding the pricing structure.

48 single cells with delivery is $3674, 4-6 days
48 in packs of 4 with free delivery is $3948, no time given for delivery.

 

[AshleyL]

I'm tempted by the Battero @ $55/cell (yeah I know I have freight shipping and transaction fees and whatnot). I don't know if I need more battery. I don't have all mine set up yet. But more is better right? Hm.

I already bought 16 Battero cells from GobelPower, it was shipped on 21 March 2024 based on the uploaded/given bill of lading.
Still not yet arrive as per today..........sigh....

 

[G00SE]

I already bought 16 Battero cells from GobelPower, it was shipped on 21 March 2024 based on the uploaded/given bill of lading.
Still not yet arrive as per today..........sigh....

I think it took a friend of mine about 40 days to receive his prebuilt from them

 

[SparkyJJO]

I already bought 16 Battero cells from GobelPower, it was shipped on 21 March 2024 based on the uploaded/given bill of lading.
Still not yet arrive as per today..........sigh....

That isn't surprising. I expect 60-90 days via slow boat based on prior reports of cells arriving from overseas from just about any source. Any less than 60 days is a pleasant surprise.

 

[AshleyL]

I think it took a friend of mine about 40 days to receive his prebuilt from them

>.< Your friend warehouse location to his place location?

Mine is from China warehouse to Malaysia.

 

[G00SE]

>.< Your friend warehouse location to his place location?

Mine is from China warehouse to Malaysia.

China warehouse to residential shipping address in the lower 48

 

[AshleyL]

That isn't surprising. I expect 60-90 days via slow boat based on prior reports of cells arriving from overseas from just about any source. Any less than 60 days is a pleasant surprise.

Don't get me started with my 18 cells from Seplos Dongguang. Late shipping + weird delay nonsense.......it was shipped on 22 March 2024, one day after GobelPower......and I have no idea on this shipment status because the freight company doesn't seem to exist when I do a search on Google and Baidu.

At the very least, for GobelPower, I know the package is shipped on Harbour Star vessel and the freight forwarder company exists.

 

[Ampster]

Of the shelf batteries at $0.05/kWh aren't very attractive. DIY at $0.025 starts to be.

Is that per Watt? That is $50 per kWh. My DIY pack three years ago wss less than $100 per kWh. I thought that was a good deal before prices went up. Freight was a big factor in the delivered price then. I just bought a set of rack mount batteries for $280 per kWh.

 

[Hedges]

Is that per Watt? That is $50 per kWh. My DIY pack three years ago wss less than $100 per kWh. I thought that was a good deal before prices went up. Freight was a big factor in the delivered price then. I just bought a set of rack mount batteries for $280 per kWh.

Per kWh of cycle life, suitable to be compared with utility rates.

$280/kWh / 6000 cycles = $0.047/kWh of cycle life.
$100/kWh / 6000 cycles = $0.017/kWh

Recently we've been seeing 6000 cycle claims. Previously I thought it was in he 3xxx cycle range.

A cycle life test of batteries several years ago saw maybe 5% of brands keep operating long enough to be fully tested. Some were repaired, many testing stopped. A couple delivered claimed life and capacity. Very few were LiFePO4; it was mostly earlier generation of batteries.
Based on those results I was saying to look for break even by 25% of claimed cycle life, can't count on 100% and don't want to lose money if pack fails.

There will be a spread between units regarding actual life delivered, and now that interest rates are no longer zero we have to consider time value of money.

$0.05/kWh of power used is attractive for those of us with inflated rates ($0.50/kWh), not attractive if cheap rates $0.10/kWh.

All that compared to utility rates. Backup and offgrid, value isn't just dollars.

 

[Ampster]

Per kWh of cycle life, suitable to be compared with utility rates.

Okay, I think I understand but I think your math is off by a decimal place. I agree with the comcept. I came up with different numbers of about $0.20 per kWh for cycle life of my pack. I am also in PG&E with rates ranging from $0.25-0.50/kWh.
Check your math ($0.05 x 1,000 = $50)

 

[Brucey]

Okay, now I understand. I came up with different numbers of about $0.20 per kWh for cycle life of my pack. I am also in PG&E with rates ranging from $0.25-0.50/kWh

If you have peak at 50 cents and off peak at 25 cents you could potential do some arbitrage and charge up when cheap and sell high, if the payback isn't there for sell back then use the batteries to cover the peak period

 

[Jack1985]

Not understanding the pricing structure.

48 single cells with delivery is $3674, 4-6 days
48 in packs of 4 with free delivery is $3948, no time given for delivery.

48 single cells with delivery is $3674, 4-6 days - That air shipping system can only caculate max 100KG air shipment. Our team is upadating air shipping caculation right now. 48 cells is about 300KG by air shipping is about 2216usd. 61*48+2216=5144 by which is not a good deal. For Heavy cargo, use the free Sea shipment link whih is 3948usd to door.

Sea shipment is about 40-58 days depending on destination. Will also send photo of the shipment to buyer when ship out the cargo.

 

[Danke]

Per kWh of cycle life, suitable to be compared with utility rates.

$280/kWh / 6000 cycles = $0.047/kWh of cycle life.
$100/kWh / 6000 cycles = $0.017/kWh

Recently we've been seeing 6000 cycle claims. Previously I thought it was in he 3xxx cycle range.

A cycle life test of batteries several years ago saw maybe 5% of brands keep operating long enough to be fully tested. Some were repaired, many testing stopped. A couple delivered claimed life and capacity. Very few were LiFePO4; it was mostly earlier generation of batteries.
Based on those results I was saying to look for break even by 25% of claimed cycle life, can't count on 100% and don't want to lose money if pack fails.

There will be a spread between units regarding actual life delivered, and now that interest rates are no longer zero we have to consider time value of money.

$0.05/kWh of power used is attractive for those of us with inflated rates ($0.50/kWh), not attractive if cheap rates $0.10/kWh.

All that compared to utility rates. Backup and offgrid, value isn't just dollars.

I have a power line next to my house I’m building. I think it averages less than ~$0.15/kW when including fees and taxes.

So no way is it ever going to “pay off” for me going off-grid solar. But if I didn’t spend so much money on Solar, I’d have money for hookers and blow. And my priest told me I had to stop that, not a healthy hobby apparently.

 

[Ampster]

If you have peak at 50 cents and off peak at 25 cents you could potential do some arbitrage and charge up when cheap and sell high,

I actually do a little of that. I do have some small overhead because of Non Bypassable Charges which are not offset by production. They amount to $0.025/kWh and annually cost me $230 which I rationalize as the cost of using the grid as a battery

 

[Hedges]

Okay, I think I understand but I think your math is off by a decimal place. I agree with the comcept. I came up with different numbers of about $0.20 per kWh for cycle life of my pack. I am also in PG&E with rates ranging from $0.25-0.50/kWh.
Check your math ($0.05 x 1,000 = $50)

What was your math? $0.20/kWh sounds like 1500 cycles for the $280/kWh battery.

My math: PowerPro $4000 for 14kWh x 6000 cycles = $0.048/kWh of cycle life

Your rate looks consistent with net metering rates I see.

My non-solar rate (for property where I haven't installed yet) is $0.515 for Tier 1, $0.0603 $0.603 for Tier 2. Bill doesn't list any higher tiers which might be lurking to bite us.

 

[Brucey]

I have a power line next to my house I’m building. I think it averages less than ~$0.15/kW when including fees and taxes.

So no way is it ever going to “pay off” for me going off-grid solar. But if I didn’t spend so much money on Solar, I’d have money for hookers and blow. And my priest told me I had to stop that, not a healthy hobby apparently.

If you massively overbuild you could power a nice strip club to maximize the hobby benefits.

 

[Dagoth Ur Does Solar]

Trying to predict if prices are going to go up or down in the short term is just speculation. As pointed out, any number of infinite possibilities could disrupt something in the battery supply chain.

Wars, shipping issues, government lockdowns, tariffs, natural disasters- any of this could happen in very short period of time and massively disrupt prices. There's just no way to know.

 

[Ampster]

What was your math? $0.20/kWh sounds like 1500 cycles for the $280/kWh battery.

I assumed a ten year life with a battery and inverter cost of $11,000. I also assumed I would use 16 kWh per day on a 42 kWh pack. So $11,000 divided by 3650 days is a cost per day of $3 per day. Then $3 per day divided by 16 kWh is $0.20 per kWh. It is a little less than 1500 cycles. I am sure there are a few different ways to calculate long term cost of operation per kWh.