Polish up your crystal ball

[EastTexCowboy]

Where do you see the DIY solar industry going over the next few years? I’m thinking up to the next five years but any opinions or time frames are welcome.

Battery technology, inverter technology, panels, mobile solar, new technologies? Do you have specific insight on one or more things due to your career or experience?

I’m just looking for a friendly discussion so I’d ask to please leave politics out of it.

I don’t have the years of hands-on solar experience of many of you, but I’ve been a student of alternative energy for a lot of years and the advances so far have been pretty amazing. But what’s just around the corner or down the road a couple of years?

 

[John Frum]

Where do you see the DIY solar industry going over the next few years?

Less DIY and more industry.

 

[Danke]

Higher efficiency for panels. Cheaper batteries. More rules making it harder for grid-tied to DIY.

 

[EastTexCowboy]

Less DIY and more industry.

I've heard that opinion more than once. What do you think is going to drive that? There is obviously a growing demand for DIY and I think maybe as much push back against it (avoiding any politics but regulatory agencies are going to do what they do). It makes me wonder if the demand will override any other forces at work. I mean, if people have money and want to spend on a widget someone is going to build and sell the widget.

 

[EastTexCowboy]

Higher efficiency for panels. Cheaper batteries. More rules making it harder for grid-tied to DIY.

I think you're on track with all three.

 

[vladkgb]

Less DIY and more industry.

Agreed. I think once the demand dies down due to NEM3 and people realizing how much price gouging there is by installers, the "industry" will adjust by lowering their prices significantly to get demand back up, making it more attractive than DIY to the average consumer.

 

[John Frum]

I've heard that opinion more than once. What do you think is going to drive that?

$n is figuring out right now how to separate you from more of your cash.
$n = [ "tax man", "big business" ]
Also the folks who like to mind other peoples business will see a new opportunity to mind other people's business.
Two or three "Keiretsu" will end up owning everthing they can buy and killing pretty much everthing else they can't.

There is obviously a growing demand for DIY and I think maybe as much push back against it (avoiding any politics but regulatory agencies are going to do what they do). It makes me wonder if the demand will override any other forces at work. I mean, if people have money and want to spend on a widget someone is going to build and sell the widget.

It used to be separate components, then the inverter/charger, now its the rise of AIO.
We are still in the Cambrian explosion of this technology.

 

[John Frum]

Maybe it will come down to Eaton vs Schneider.

 

[EastTexCowboy]

Agreed. I think once the demand dies down due to NEM3 and people realizing how much price gouging there is by installers, the "industry" will adjust by lowering their prices significantly to get demand back up, making it more attractive than DIY to the average consumer.

I think you may be right but that's assuming more people make career moves to the industry. At least around here there is such a shortage of competent installers that's almost as much of a bottleneck as the passive aggressive nature of the utility companies. But I can see it becoming more of a commodity than a specialty.

 

[JJJJ]

I see more plug and play. Products will follow the same standards making it easier to swap out parts from different manufacturers and get similar results.

 

[EastTexCowboy]

We are still in the cambrian explosion of this technology.

Very well put. Which makes it even more difficult to see very far into the future.

 

[EastTexCowboy]

I see more plug and play. Products will follow the same standards making it easier to swap out parts from different manufacturers and get similar results.

That's an interesting concept. Part of it is going to depend on the development and management of the standards. It's pretty much the wild west out there right now.

 

[JJJJ]

So was the computer industry when it started.

 

[45North]

More grid-tied solar.
Localized power-sharing solar co-ops.
More V2X as we get more EV's.

 

[John Frum]

I hope we will get high volume production of LFP cells with supply chains that start and end in North America.
I fear this may always be a year or two away.

 

[45North]

So was the computer industry when it started.

I hope we will get high volume production of LFP cells with supply chains that start and end in North America.
I fear this may always be a year or two away.

It starts with govs designating Li etc as strategic minerals and banning foreign (read Chinese) ownership of mines

 

[SolarScott]

Where do you see the DIY solar industry going over the next few years? I’m thinking up to the next five years but any opinions or time frames are welcome.

Battery technology, inverter technology, panels, mobile solar, new technologies? Do you have specific insight on one or more things due to your career or experience?

I’m just looking for a friendly discussion so I’d ask to please leave politics out of it.

I don’t have the years of hands-on solar experience of many of you, but I’ve been a student of alternative energy for a lot of years and the advances so far have been pretty amazing. But what’s just around the corner or down the road a couple of years?

There are lots of folks out there who have no idea what can be done. I started my solar journey because a friend asked me about a solar company trying to sell him on a leased/grid tied system. I said it was a scam. Then I decided I better check and see how things had progressed since I put in my very small 12 volt system for Y2K. Those damned youtube videos convienced me to jump in and get building. With more of these channels promoting DIY solar and the better the videos get, more and more people are going to gain the confidence to build there own systems. This should drive prices down if the fools in D.C. don't decide to nuke China.

 

[Bluedog225]

I expect more pre packaged solar carports.

 

[Rednecktek]

96v nominal systems, more UL listed components, cheaper copper based panels (rather than the current silver based), sodium batteries as a common option, higher density rackmount batteries.

 

[Wakintx]

Will solar generators kill a lot of diy? Those afraid of getting their hands "dirty" buy them. I see much interest in solar for backup but people afraid to try to build anything worried they "burn their house down"

Like computers growing exponentially more powerful, panels get stronger, batteries more capacity and less expensive. I remain grid tied and my systems power important circuits to keep the regulators outta my life